To: Sr K who wrote (121958 ) 9/28/2012 3:08:51 PM From: RetiredNow Respond to I think that's obvious. Part of what is ailing this economy is the massive uncertainty. Businesses are hunkering down, because of policy instability. On the one hand, they have a disfunctional Congress who is more focused on fighting than solving problems, and on the other, they have a Central Economic Planner who is determined to drive commodities through the roof and increasing their input prices, which distorts the picture on what their long run ROI will be on new projects. There is so much uncertainty, that their models can't account for the unknown risks, which means they get conservative to factor the uncertainty in. Then you have American incomes and labor participation plunging. That kills savings, investment, and spending, which further erodes business confidence. Not good.Cue Stagflationary Recession: Chicago PMI Huge Sub-50 Miss, Back To September 2009 Levels; Prices Paid Spikes Chicago PMI just dipped into contraction, or for all intents and purposes, recession, printing its first sub-50 print, 49.7 specifically, on expectations of a 52.8, and down from 53. This was the lowest since September 2009 and the biggest miss in 4 months. Specifically, the employment index came at a two and a half year low, New Orders, Backlogs and Deliveries had their 3 month moving averages at the lowest since Mid 2009, and Capital Equipment printed at a 17 month low. But not all hope is lost: at least prices paid soared for the third consecutive month to 63.2 from 57. Cue not just recession, but stagflationary recession. It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster. Time to start pricing in QE X to be followed 24 hours later by QE X+1. The central bank cartel is starting to lose control.
