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To: Area51 who wrote (172978)9/28/2012 3:20:53 PM
From: Keith J1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206209
 
It's not over, but absent a significant event between now and the election, I think Obama has it in the bag.

We haven't even hit the first debate, and Romney is downplaying expectations for his performance there.

The electoral math for a Romney win is very, very narrow.

But enough politics, back to the markets. The question then becomes, what happens to the makeup of the House, and what happens regarding fiscal cliff on Jan. 1. For now, I will stay in market until Congress returns to session. Whether I stay in at that point, not clear.

KJ



To: Area51 who wrote (172978)9/29/2012 11:25:00 AM
From: mistermj2 Recommendations  Respond to of 206209
 
FWIW re Intrade... In addition to being very illiquid...most people throwing around the Intrade odds do not seem to know it is very hard for an American to fund an Intrade account. It is highly suspect that there is any correlation to American voters at all.

More likely it is used as a propaganda tool to produce phony odds, for shock headlines.

How many U.S. customers would bother with trying to fund an account?
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If your credit or debit card was issued by a US bank then unfortunately you will not be able to use your card to fund your account. New regulations that came into force in the US on June 1st 2010 now heavily restrict the use of credit and debit cards on sites such as INTRADE.

Ihttp://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/help/faqs.jsp