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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DD™ who wrote (76566)	10/1/2012 11:30:37 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 206758

Interesting indeed! May have to push out the Oct low til next week, which might be enough to keep the rally going through the end of the year. Most of the primary concerns for the market in the way of low interest rates in the US still seem ridiculous. The thought that OPEC is going to reduce oil prices because the FED raises people's mortgage rates seems absurd. I'm convinced the primary growth driver to offset $100 oil is 3.5% mortgage rates. I don't think that sending mortgage rates back to 6% would do anything but cause another crash in housing prices, and do little to bring down oil prices below $85. If we had 6% mortgage rates and $100 oil right now, I'd be 100% short this market. The consumer would have zero chance in hell of making their monthly payments. At 3% mortgage rates and $90 oil, I feel comfortable generally being positive on the economy. Most of the damage from $4 gasoline is being offset by lower housing costs by this point. There are many selfish reasons why I would love to see interest rates reset higher in the US, but I think the dollar will be fine since commodity currencies are still in a bubble like the Australian dollar.