I trust two pundits and their judgements: Steve Benen and Nate Silvers. Both are having a similar reaction to the the debate this AM. After reading Nate's, I suggest you read comments that readers are making below the article. And I still think Obama was effect by the altitude of Denver:
Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney
By NATE SILVER
Instant-reaction polls conducted by CNN and CBS News suggest that Mitt Romney was the winner of the first presidential debate.
A CNN poll of debate-watchers found Mr. Romney very clearly ahead, with 67 percent of registered voters saying he won the debate, against just 25 percent for President Obama.
A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 46 percent siding with Mr. Romney, 22 percent for Mr. Obama and 32 percent saying it was a tie.
Google, which is experimenting with online surveys, found 38.9 percent of respondents saying they thought Mr. Obama performed better in a poll it conducted during the debate, against 35.5 percent for Mr. Romney and 25.6 percent who said it was a draw. But a second poll they conducted after the debate found 47.8 percent of respondents giving Mr. Romney the advantage, against 25.4 percent for Mr. Obama.
There is not a lot of empirical research on the relationship between instant reaction polls and their eventual effect on the head-to-head polls. However, these were strong numbers for Mr. Romney where comparisons to past post-debate polls are available. A similar CBS News poll conducted among undecided voters after the first debate in 2008, for example, found that 40 percent said that Mr. Obama won the debate, against 22 percent for John McCain. The head-to-head polls moved toward Mr. Obama by about three percentage points after that debate, although some of that may have been from the momentum that Mr. Obama had carrying into the evening.
The 67 percent of voters in the CNN poll who said that Mr. Romney won Wednesday night’s debate was higher than in any of the network’s surveys of the 2008 debates.
By comparison, 51 percent of debate-watchers in a CNN poll after the first presidential debate in 2008 said that Mr. Obama had the stronger performance. And 58 percent said so after the third and final presidential debate in 2008.
There may be some mitigating factors for Mr. Obama. First, although the conventional wisdom was that Mr. Obama had a lackluster performance throughout most of the debate — he certainly had an extremely cautious and defensive strategy — there were few obvious moments in which he said things that will make for compelling YouTube clips or cable news soundbites.
Second, head-to-head polls throughout the election cycle have been hard to influence for any reason. There are few undecided voters remaining — and undecided voters may be less likely than others to have actually watched the debates.
Still, it seems likely that Mr. Romney will make at least some gains in head-to-head polls after the debate, and entirely plausible that they will be toward the high end of the historical range, in which polls moved by about three percentage points toward the candidate who was thought to have the stronger debate.
The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen in an election held immediately — had Mr. Romney trailing by a wider margin than three points in advance of the debate. (Instead, it put his deficit at about five points nationwide.) But our Nov. 6 forecast anticipated that the race would tighten some. It’s going to take a few days for any reaction to the debate to filter through the FiveThirtyEight model.
My own instant reaction is that Mr. Romney may have done the equivalent of kicking a field goal, perhaps not bringing the race to a draw, but setting himself up in such a way that his comeback chances have improved by a material amount. The news cycle will be busy between now and Nov. 6, with a jobs report coming out on Friday, a vice-presidential debate next week and then two more presidential debates on Oct. 16 and Oct. 22.
According to one prominent offshore gambling site, Pinnacle Sports, Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the election declined to about 73 percent after the debate from around 80 percent beforehand.
Commments:
I am a big fan of Jim Lehrer's but he was a disaster as a moderator last night. Romney bullied him and hogged the microphone. It would be interesting to compare the amount of time allowed Romney to that allowed Obama. Romney "won" by being obnoxious, pushy, manic, and downright rude. I do not find those traits "presidential." I am appalled that he is praised for being aggressive when what he was actually doing was acting out of control. Obama was dignified, and that gets called weak. Jim Lehrer should have enforced the rules and called Romney on his rude behavior. He should have made sure each man got approximately the same amount of time instead of allowing Romney to run past the cutoff on every question without rebuke.
Oct. 4, 2012 at 8:10 a.m.Recommended1Share this on FacebookShare this on Twitter

ChrisPA
Nate: How about a post about how lying seems to have no political consequences anymore? I'm a big Obama supporter, but there's no question that Romney won the debate. How did he do it? By lying, lying and lying. Seriously - did he change his tax policy the moment he took the stage?
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CatdancerRochester, NY
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I am a big fan of Jim Lehrer's but he was a disaster as a moderator last night. Romney bullied him and hogged the microphone. It would be interesting to compare the amount of time allowed Romney to that allowed Obama. Romney "won" by being obnoxious, pushy, manic, and downright rude. I do not find those traits "presidential." I am appalled that he is praised for being aggressive when what he was actually doing was acting out of control. Obama was dignified, and that gets called weak. Jim Lehrer should have enforced the rules and called Romney on his rude behavior. He should have made sure each man got approximately the same amount of time instead of allowing Romney to run past the cutoff on every question without rebuke.
Oct. 4, 2012 at 8:10 a.m.Share this on FacebookShare this on Twitter

RyanBoston, MA
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Was I watching a different debate than everyone else? Romney wasn't going to throw up on himself during the debate, but it seems like that was the expectation. He did very well, but I also thought Obama did what he needed. He started a clear narrative of Romney not having any specific policy details, and was able to respond to criticism clearly and lay out his own detailed plans. I would say that Romney "won" but not that he did anything to change the state of the race. It seems like pundits focus on the polling questions that do not really matter - asking who "won" the debate is fairly arbitrary and is based on expectations. When they asked them to grade the candidates performance, both Obama and Romney got an "A" from the viewers - not what you would expect with the doomsday scenarios that the pundits have been pushing. The group of undecided voters CNN had watching the debate overwhelmingly said Romney won, but when asked if they have now made up their minds on who to vote for - 8 said now they will vote for Obama, 8 said they will now vote for Romney. So the real story of the debate to me is this: Romney won the expectations game - since the Obama campaign has done so well at defining him, people actually thought Romney was a bumbling idiot going into the debate. However, both candidates performed well (they got As from the CNN poll), and it did not change the state of the race (undecideds splitting still means Obama +5). There is more to it than who "won" a poll.
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m. m.florida
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If Romney wins the election, will my tax dollars go towards paying for a car elevator in the White House? Let's stay focused, folks. Romney is not one of us, and we certainly are just pawns in how to make the rich, richer. No debate, good, bad or indifferent can change my mind. I believe that sanity is an endearing quality in a President.
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LisaNYC
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Too bad that Romney lied about virtually everything a la Ryan in his convention speech.
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Charles AlmonBrooklyn NYC
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I thought Mitt behaved like a bull in a china shop. A good ad for Obama might be to play some of Romney's comment's with the positions he took on those issues 3 weeks ago!
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Grumpy old manUnited States
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Is it a debate or is it a three round boxing match? Pundits and wanabe-pundits will use the Greek parlor game rules to judge the debate. The audience, however, will see clearly what is in the hearts of the candidates and, to them, that transcends the policy of the moment pundit view. There will be no knock out, but instead a TKO will be delivered on that day in November.
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MGMiami
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President Obama came across as a likable person we can trust. Romney didn't.
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GattmanInside the Beltway
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After Jim Lehrer's performance last night, President Obama might propose defunding PBS, too.
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EnGeeBellingham, WA
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I chalked up President Obama's poor convention speech to what--fatigue? People will remember Clinton's speech, Granholm's fire, and the stupid empty chair, but not the acceptance speech of the Democratic nominee and incumbent president. Last night, Obama again looked tired and disoriented. Even his hat-tip to his wife seemed weirdly stilted. Which leads me to ask...is he feeling all right?
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NCTravelerChapel Hill, NC
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If wishes were horses (or elephants), beggars would ride.
Debates aren't elections, and I sat wondering not who looked the best but who was most consistent. Obama tells the same story every time; Romney changes his tune to fit the audience.
Will the real Mitt Romney please stand up? Is it the one who dismisses 47% of the country as moochers or the one who cares about all. He can't have it both ways, and in the end I was left utterly unconvinced by his suave acting.
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beantownahBoston
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Obama will come back, he always does. They have both been tested in the political fires. What was most surprising to me - and it appears to a less than capably prepared Obama, was the immediate physical presence of Romney. Four years ago Obama patiently and kindly debated an often confused, wounded little old war veteran, patiently smiling at his meandering answers. When Romney strode onto the stage last night Obama seemed a bit taken aback at his size and manner - a large strapping fellow with big expressive hands and a confident presence. Yikes. I, for one, never realized that Romney was such a big guy. It may have been yet another wild card that threw Obama off his game. But he will reset in time for the Town Meeting style debate.
Oct. 4, 2012 at 8:09 a.m.Recommended2Share this on FacebookShare this on Twitter

MarkNorthern Virginia
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Let's see a simple summation of fact checks and truth-stretchers. Romney loses on that, and shows one thing people simply miss:
Romney's "movement to center" late in the campaign has been scripted from the outset.
With Romney, Americans will still be buying a pig-in-a-poke of unknown, draconian Republican head-shed agenda items that will be pushed through with as much illegality as was apparent during the Bush Administration.
You have no idea what they are really up to, America, and your chain is still being jerked with Romney's latest flops to "bring in the center" -- the last box to check in the script.
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Dylan111New Haven
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Spin it all you want, but Mitt Romney clearly won that debate last night. Why? Because everybody says do, and perception is reality in this day and age. Romney is going to reap a whole boatload of money out of this, money which had begun to dry up as is rich backers began to fear his defeat. And there will be a lot more volunteers for his campaign, people energized by his victory.
Democrats who have been lulling themselves into a state of complacency because of the positive poll numbers and sites like Mr. Silver's 538 better wake up right now and make a commitment to personally keeping President Obama in the White House because he can't do it himself--even if he wipes the floor with Romney in the next two debates.
Ten bucks or two hours of your time calling voters can make a big difference if every Democrat participates.
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Joe From BostonMassachusetts
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So what happened to "severely conservative" MItt?
Somebody needs to ask that guy to show his ID before the next debate, because he sure wasn't the Mittens who has been advocating big tax cuts for the very wealthy.
And what's with the "revenue neutral" tax code changes? That implies no increase or decrease in tax revenues. Would somebody please explain how NOT changing tax revenues provides a reduction in the tax burden that Mittens says we need to make the economy grow.
He also threw Paul Ryan under the bus when he said that Obama should have agreed to Simpson Bowles. Maybe he does not remember that Paul Ryan was on the committee and Paul Ryan engineered enough NO votes from House members that the committee recommendation failed, and there was NOTHING for Obama to agree to. Ryan disagreed with the revenue enhancements that the committee concluded would be needed.
Romney astounded me (and not in a positive way) when he said: "Look, I got five boys. I'm used to people saying something that's not always true, but just keep on repeating it and ultimately hoping I'll believe it --"
What father says in public that his five kids LIE? ("I got five boys. I'm USED TO people saying something that's not always true, ...") Who taught them to do THAT? Doesn't look good for them, or for him.
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KMBoston, MA
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Last night Romney looked, spoke and acted like a President with a plan. Obama was weak, intimidated, puzzled, and just didn't have any plan oh, wait a minute he did "raise taxes." How does that help the middle class or any class of Americans?
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ScottBoston
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Romney only won with bravado - not facts.
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Lee in IowaDes Moines
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Nate, please take a second look at CNN's "insta-poll" before you cite it; I'm reading elsewhere that their "sample" was no sample, but a group of over-50 conservatives from the deep South. Possible??
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MBBrooklyn
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The most accurate description I've seen so far of Obama's performance was (as much as it pains me to say it) from the Weekly Standard, cited in today's Times: "Obama often found himself at the end of a verbal cul-de-sac, seemingly unaware of how he’d ended up there." It's true. His compounded verbiage trapped him and made him look as though he were scrambling while trying to remember what was just said, while Romney appeared confident, organized, and, despite the blatant untruths and evasions, convincing. (Well, he didn't convince me, but I am a news junkie, not an undecided voter, etc.)
Obama missed about a dozen opportunities to rattle Romney going into the homestretch. As brilliant as I think the president is and as much as I believe in (some of) his ideas, he made me want to turn him off last night. He reminded me of students in my writing seminar who start off with some interesting, clear insight, but then try to make it all seem more complex and substantive by burying it in some garbled, Yoda-voiced academic-seeming sentence structures. NEEDS IMPROVEMENT.
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Richard Pollaratampa
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Last night was emabarrassing to a whole generation of Democrats. Obama is the only thing standing between us and a radical shift in the direction of this country. You would have thought that he would have had the decency to prepare for the debate? What I have seen over the years is that actions which reinforce a narrative about a candidate tend to sway voters. (See Hillary Bosnia and Romney 47%). The debate reinforced the image that Obama is not only arrogant and dismissive, but wholly unprepared to lead the country. Watching last night made me pine for Jimmy Carter. At least with Carter you got an honest performance....
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planetguyCA,CA
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As an Obama supporter I can be objective in writing that he "lost" the debate. His statements were rambling, unfocused, and way too long for effective rhetoric. Romney's statements were pithy, sharp, and untruthful. The last attribute is not necessarily a negative as a debate strategy unless your opponent can succesfully challenge. And in this case Obama did not.
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firstoffCalifornia
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I find it odd and slightly discomfitting that even the "experts" are more concerned about style than substance in this first debate.
Apparently lying while looking good matters.
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DJMNew York, NY
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Hopefully Obama probably learned his lesson. Romney will twist anything, state bald faced lies, and change his positions so that his opponent loses concentration. In the next 1-2 weeks, as people parse Romney's words, they will realize that a slick salesman was trying to sell them snake oil. He almost succeeded, but one has to be gullible.
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PeterNew Haven
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I watched most of the debate while not actually looking at the screen that often, so I got something of a "radio" experience. What I heard was Romney delivering punches (infused with lies and misleading statements, but punches nonetheless) and Obama's giving slow, halting and flat responses. He seemed to be straining to recall lines he wanted to use, and he struggled to get his message across. I will be voting for Obama regardless of the debates, and I find Romney to be slimier than a used car salesman, but Romney was clearly the more comfortable and energetic speaker last night. I hope Obama picks up the passion next time and goes after Romney for some of the many, many flaws in his politics and his persona.
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