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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: zeta1961 who wrote (122537)10/4/2012 10:50:38 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 149317
 
I don't understand.........was there a big bird reference in the debate last nite?



To: zeta1961 who wrote (122537)10/4/2012 11:07:25 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
Live blogging from one of Obama's allegedly biggest fans............its a study in hysteria. This morning he tweets Obama may have lost the election over this debate:

10.31 pm. Look: you know how much I love the guy, and you know how much of a high information viewer I am, and I can see the logic of some of Obama's meandering, weak, professorial arguments. But this was a disaster for the president for the key people he needs to reach, and his effete, wonkish lectures may have jolted a lot of independents into giving Romney a second look.

Obama looked tired, even bored; he kept looking down; he had no crisp statements of passion or argument; he wasn't there. He was entirely defensive, which may have been the strategy. But it was the wrong strategy. At the wrong moment.

The person with authority on that stage was Romney - offered it by one of the lamest moderators ever, and seized with relish. This was Romney the salesman. And my gut tells me he sold a few voters on a change tonight. It's beyond depressing. But it's true.

There are two more debates left. I have experienced many times the feeling that Obama just isn't in it, that he's on the ropes and not fighting back, and then he pulls it out. He got a little better over time tonight. But he pulled every punch. Maybe the next two will undo some of the damage. But I have to say I think it was extensive.

10.30 pm. But Romney's closing statement - very, very vague and highly deceptive. And is it me, or does he even sound like Reagan? And his final statement is on defending Medicare! He's the protector of that entitlement, even as his actual plan is a radical overhaul of it.

10.29 pm. How is Obama's closing statement so fucking sad, confused and lame? He choked. He lost. He may even have lost the election tonight.

10.25 pm. The idea that the candidate of the current Republican party is portraying himself as the most willing to reach across the aisle is staggering. That he is more persuasive on this than the president is a staggering personal failure on Obama's part. And now Obama is saying he is the candidate of "saying no". Just staggering incompetence on his part.

10.23 pm. Lehrer has basically handed the moderation of this to the candidates, and Romney has taken command. And he has done so by speaking for three minutes less.

10.22 pm. The liar has managed to make Obama seem dishonest. In an act of will, Romney's lies are made effective.

10.19 pm. A reader writes:

My wife and I are feeling the same hysteria you're expressing. Romney, while coming off as more than a bit aggressive, is clear, authoritative, and on point. Obama is a confusing, meandering, stuttering mess.

I'm a high information voter, so I know the context of Obama's complaints about Romney's tax plan not adding up, or comments about Medicare, Dodd-Frank, etc. I also know when Romney is lying through his teeth or contradicting his own past statements. Most of your Dish readers are probably in the same boat. But America as a whole? I'm not so sure. And to them I'd think Romney looks like he's creaming Obama.

And given how badly Romney's years at Bain have played in the media and ad wars to this date, I'm truly impressed by how well Romney has been able to play up his years of business experience. I have to admit, the way he's spinning it, not only does it sound impressive, but incredibly relevant to the issues being discussed.

In live-blogging a debate, I am not judging the intellectual cogency alone. I am judging it as a debate, which is a complex thing, with many factors in play. But I know debating, am good at it, and I can see a wipe-out when it's, well, in front of one's nose.

10.17 pm. Romney is even sounding Reagan-like and compassionate right now. The Etch-A-Sketch is shaking, and the old Romney is back, with coded appeals to his base. And then he adds onto that a litany of woes currently experienced. Again, even after Obama's eloquent answer, Romney is better.

10.14 pm. Obama's description of the role of government is actually elegant, and eloquent. Invoking Lincoln was great; invoking Eisenhower would have been even better. Education is the key. But hearing Obama defend his record, after hearing Clinton, is painful. Truly painful.

10.12 pm. Finally, Obama manages to point out the vagueness of Romney's hazy alternatives. But Romney, who just rolls ovr Lehrer. Yet another round to Romney. I don't think Obama has won a single exchange in this entire debate.

10.08 pm. Romney has somehow managed to turn healthcare into a fantasy decision between grim rationing bureaucrats versus patients and hospitals. It's an amazingly good performance, given the facts and arguments he has to deploy. In response, Obama is stuttering, detailed, wonkish, ineffective.

10.06 pm. I find myself bored silly by Obama. If I am bored silly by this wonkish lecture, and his refusal to rebut specific points, i.e. lies, Obama's in trouble.

10.03 pm. I simply cannot believe that Mitt Romney is saying he is more bipartisan than Obama. And Obama never pushes back. He is leaving argument after argument on the table, while he seems to be writing a memo to himself whenever Romney is speaking.

10.01 pm. Finally, Obama thanks Romney for Obamacare. The first time he actually turned the tables. Staggering it took him an hour to get there. And now Romney's lies on healthcare are becoming effective. And Obama is still looking down. Did no one tell him there is a split screen? Just political malpractice.

9.58 pm. Romney is now so clearly lying about how president Obama decided to do healthcare before jobs I wonder if he's over-reaching. But you notice that the second Romny stops speaking and Obama starts, the approval line sinks. That's grim data. Obama is going full metal wonk.

9.55 pm. More dissents:

It's 9:46, and you're becoming hysterical. Romney is so aggressive he's frightening. He's lying so quickly and changing positions so radically that no one could keep up with it. Take it easy. Obama seems like a normal person. Romney seems like he's been drinking Red Bull for 72 hours straight. It is not attractive.

Another:

I disagree with you completely. The confident person is the President. The anxious, sweating and near-hyperventilating person--Romney. I read you regularly--and like your work--but I sometimes think that you prepare yourself for the worse by announcing its arrival prematurely. I believe that your "live-blogging" thus far reflects that predisposition.

Another:

Romney seems flat out willing to lie, but I guess no one reads the fact check after?

9.53 pm. Some readers agree with me that Obama has been losing this debate, although I do think he is improving, waking up, finally and gaining momentum. One reader writes:

I'm sitting in a room with six other people. These aren't all ravenous Democrats. No one is having the reaction you are. Not. One. Obama HAS flat-out asked Romney how he plans to pay for his budget. Over and over and over again. Seriously, man, what debate are you watching?

They're both tight and trying to cram a ton of details into their answers. Yes, Romney is ravenously attacking. What else did you expect him to do? That's not Obama's style, and you've known it now for four years. He was never going to rip at Romney's throat. This is who Obama is. You know that. Keep calm, debate on.

9.51 pm. Romney is dominating Lehrer. And the debate. Just in pure alpha male terms.

9.45 pm. Finally, Obama began to make sense on Medicare. He made a simple, comprehensible case, and actually looked the boomers in the eye, when he said so. But Romney equaled him on this subject. I notice that as soon as Obama starts to speak, whatever he says, the green line of male approval goes down. It's the gender gap illustrated live.

9.44 pm. How Obama has managed to give Romney the advantage on Medicare in this exchange is political malpractice. Its not just an advantage so far. It's a wipe-out for Romney.

9.42 pm. This is a rolling calamity for Obama. He's boring, abstract, and less human-seeming than Romney! I can't even follow hm half the time. Either exhausted, over-briefed ... or just flailing. He is throwing this debate away.

9.39 pm. First unforced Romney error: "I may need a new accountant."

9.31 pm. Finally, Obama is hitting his stride. But if the first half hour counts in basic impression, it's looking grim.

9.29 pm. Here's what Obama is missing: energy, optimism, passion. Whereas in style, I tend to agree with [url=]Wilkinson[/url] so far:

Romney seems relatively relaxed and is coming off fairly clear and authoritative. He should cut out the bemused smile he makes when Obama talks, though.

9.25 pm. Romney is running on Bowles-Simpson! And he's relating it to alleviating human suffering. A devastating round for the president. Romney has taken charge, even as Obama has spoken more. And Romney has now managed to make this into a status-quo versus change dynamic. Just terrible for Obama so far, in my opinion. And again, he keeps looking down to write. He should look him in the eye.

9.24 pm. I sure hope Obama wakes up. He's beginning to. And then he used the word "data".

9.22 pm. Notice how Romney is talking about actual individuals, while Obama is talking abstract ideas. And Obama has not made a clear simple argument for getting more jobs. How did he not prepare an answer for that?

9.18 pm. Obama's looking down as Romney speaks. Horrible TV. Why doesn't Obama just say: "How do we afford this? Where will you get the money to pay for the big tax cuts?" I hate to say this but Romney is connecting more than Obama, it seems to me. Obama is professorial and wonkish. He's on defense.

9.16 pm. Man, Obama is boring and abstract. He's putting us to sleep. I get his points but he is entirely wonky tonight. And he is on the defensive. Romney's crazy math is somehow made legitimate. Romney is kicking the president's ass.

9.11 pm. A good volley back from Obama but Romney is coming off like Reagan, and has managed to provide anecdotes and stories, while Obama is a little wonky. But when Romney actually said that he wasn't cutting taxes for the very wealthy, it seems completely out of sync with his actual proposal.

9.07 pm. A nervous but competent beginning by Obama, but I'm struck by the visuals. Romney just looks like a classic president and Obama a very different one. The visuals are with Romney. And his answer was a total re-boot on compassion. This first round goes solidly to Romney.

9.01 pm. Basically the same height, which is not always the case.

8.57 pm. Here's the spousal money shot, with Ann putting on her Mary Tyler Moore "Ordinary People" face:

read more.............

andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com



To: zeta1961 who wrote (122537)10/4/2012 11:22:06 AM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
I trust two pundits and their judgements: Steve Benen and Nate Silvers. Both are having a similar reaction to the the debate this AM. After reading Nate's, I suggest you read comments that readers are making below the article. And I still think Obama was effect by the altitude of Denver:

Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney

By NATE SILVER

Instant-reaction polls conducted by CNN and CBS News suggest that Mitt Romney was the winner of the first presidential debate.

A CNN poll of debate-watchers found Mr. Romney very clearly ahead, with 67 percent of registered voters saying he won the debate, against just 25 percent for President Obama.

A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 46 percent siding with Mr. Romney, 22 percent for Mr. Obama and 32 percent saying it was a tie.

Google, which is experimenting with online surveys, found 38.9 percent of respondents saying they thought Mr. Obama performed better in a poll it conducted during the debate, against 35.5 percent for Mr. Romney and 25.6 percent who said it was a draw. But a second poll they conducted after the debate found 47.8 percent of respondents giving Mr. Romney the advantage, against 25.4 percent for Mr. Obama.

There is not a lot of empirical research on the relationship between instant reaction polls and their eventual effect on the head-to-head polls. However, these were strong numbers for Mr. Romney where comparisons to past post-debate polls are available. A similar CBS News poll conducted among undecided voters after the first debate in 2008, for example, found that 40 percent said that Mr. Obama won the debate, against 22 percent for John McCain. The head-to-head polls moved toward Mr. Obama by about three percentage points after that debate, although some of that may have been from the momentum that Mr. Obama had carrying into the evening.

The 67 percent of voters in the CNN poll who said that Mr. Romney won Wednesday night’s debate was higher than in any of the network’s surveys of the 2008 debates.

By comparison, 51 percent of debate-watchers in a CNN poll after the first presidential debate in 2008 said that Mr. Obama had the stronger performance. And 58 percent said so after the third and final presidential debate in 2008.

There may be some mitigating factors for Mr. Obama. First, although the conventional wisdom was that Mr. Obama had a lackluster performance throughout most of the debate — he certainly had an extremely cautious and defensive strategy — there were few obvious moments in which he said things that will make for compelling YouTube clips or cable news soundbites.

Second, head-to-head polls throughout the election cycle have been hard to influence for any reason. There are few undecided voters remaining — and undecided voters may be less likely than others to have actually watched the debates.

Still, it seems likely that Mr. Romney will make at least some gains in head-to-head polls after the debate, and entirely plausible that they will be toward the high end of the historical range, in which polls moved by about three percentage points toward the candidate who was thought to have the stronger debate.

The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen in an election held immediately — had Mr. Romney trailing by a wider margin than three points in advance of the debate. (Instead, it put his deficit at about five points nationwide.) But our Nov. 6 forecast anticipated that the race would tighten some. It’s going to take a few days for any reaction to the debate to filter through the FiveThirtyEight model.

My own instant reaction is that Mr. Romney may have done the equivalent of kicking a field goal, perhaps not bringing the race to a draw, but setting himself up in such a way that his comeback chances have improved by a material amount. The news cycle will be busy between now and Nov. 6, with a jobs report coming out on Friday, a vice-presidential debate next week and then two more presidential debates on Oct. 16 and Oct. 22.

According to one prominent offshore gambling site, Pinnacle Sports, Mr. Obama’s odds of winning the election declined to about 73 percent after the debate from around 80 percent beforehand.

Commments:

I am a big fan of Jim Lehrer's but he was a disaster as a moderator last night. Romney bullied him and hogged the microphone. It would be interesting to compare the amount of time allowed Romney to that allowed Obama. Romney "won" by being obnoxious, pushy, manic, and downright rude. I do not find those traits "presidential." I am appalled that he is praised for being aggressive when what he was actually doing was acting out of control. Obama was dignified, and that gets called weak. Jim
Lehrer should have enforced the rules and called Romney on his rude behavior. He should have made sure each man got approximately the same amount of time instead of allowing Romney to run past the cutoff on every question without rebuke.

Oct. 4, 2012 at 8:10 a.m.Recommended1Share this on FacebookShare this on Twitter



ChrisPA

Nate: How about a post about how lying seems to have no political consequences anymore? I'm a big Obama supporter, but there's no question that Romney won the debate. How did he do it? By lying, lying and lying. Seriously - did he change his tax policy the moment he took the stage?

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CatdancerRochester, NY

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I am a big fan of Jim Lehrer's but he was a disaster as a moderator last night. Romney bullied him and hogged the microphone. It would be interesting to compare the amount of time allowed Romney to that allowed Obama. Romney "won" by being obnoxious, pushy, manic, and downright rude. I do not find those traits "presidential." I am appalled that he is praised for being aggressive when what he was actually doing was acting out of control. Obama was dignified, and that gets called weak. Jim
Lehrer should have enforced the rules and called Romney on his rude behavior. He should have made sure each man got approximately the same amount of time instead of allowing Romney to run past the cutoff on every question without rebuke.

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RyanBoston, MA

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Was I watching a different debate than everyone else? Romney wasn't going to throw up on himself during the debate, but it seems like that was the expectation. He did very well, but I also thought Obama did what he needed. He started a clear narrative of Romney not having any specific policy details, and was able to respond to criticism clearly and lay out his own detailed plans. I would say that Romney "won" but not that he did anything to change the state of the race. It seems like pundits focus on the polling questions that do not really matter - asking who "won" the debate is fairly arbitrary and is based on expectations. When they asked them to grade the candidates performance, both Obama and Romney got an "A" from the viewers - not what you would expect with the doomsday scenarios that the pundits have been pushing. The group of undecided voters CNN had watching the debate overwhelmingly said Romney won, but when asked if they have now made up their minds on who to vote for - 8 said now they will vote for Obama, 8 said they will now vote for Romney. So the real story of the debate to me is this: Romney won the expectations game - since the Obama campaign has done so well at defining him, people actually thought Romney was a bumbling idiot going into the debate. However, both candidates performed well (they got As from the CNN poll), and it did not change the state of the race (undecideds splitting still means Obama +5). There is more to it than who "won" a poll.

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m. m.florida

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If Romney wins the election, will my tax dollars go towards paying for a car elevator in the White House? Let's stay focused, folks. Romney is not one of us, and we certainly are just pawns in how to make the rich, richer. No debate, good, bad or indifferent can change my mind. I believe that sanity is an endearing quality in a President.

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LisaNYC

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Too bad that Romney lied about virtually everything a la Ryan in his convention speech.

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Charles AlmonBrooklyn NYC

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I thought Mitt behaved like a bull in a china shop.
A good ad for Obama might be to play some of Romney's comment's
with the positions he took on those issues 3 weeks ago!

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Grumpy old manUnited States

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Is it a debate or is it a three round boxing match? Pundits and wanabe-pundits will use the Greek parlor game rules to judge the debate. The audience, however, will see clearly what is in the hearts of the candidates and, to them, that transcends the policy of the moment pundit view. There will be no knock out, but instead a TKO will be delivered on that day in November.

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MGMiami

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President Obama came across as a likable person we can trust. Romney didn't.

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GattmanInside the Beltway

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After Jim Lehrer's performance last night, President Obama might propose defunding PBS, too.

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EnGeeBellingham, WA

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I chalked up President Obama's poor convention speech to what--fatigue? People will remember Clinton's speech, Granholm's fire, and the stupid empty chair, but not the acceptance speech of the Democratic nominee and incumbent president.
Last night, Obama again looked tired and disoriented. Even his hat-tip to his wife seemed weirdly stilted.
Which leads me to ask...is he feeling all right?

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NCTravelerChapel Hill, NC

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If wishes were horses (or elephants), beggars would ride.

Debates aren't elections, and I sat wondering not who looked the best but who was most consistent. Obama tells the same story every time; Romney changes his tune to fit the audience.

Will the real Mitt Romney please stand up? Is it the one who dismisses 47% of the country as moochers or the one who cares about all. He can't have it both ways, and in the end I was left utterly unconvinced by his suave acting.

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beantownahBoston

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Obama will come back, he always does. They have both been tested in the political fires. What was most surprising to me - and it appears to a less than capably prepared Obama, was the immediate physical presence of Romney. Four years ago Obama patiently and kindly debated an often confused, wounded little old war veteran, patiently smiling at his meandering answers. When Romney strode onto the stage last night Obama seemed a bit taken aback at his size and manner - a large strapping fellow with big expressive hands and a confident presence. Yikes. I, for one, never realized that Romney was such a big guy. It may have been yet another wild card that threw Obama off his game. But he will reset in time for the Town Meeting style debate.

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MarkNorthern Virginia

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Let's see a simple summation of fact checks and truth-stretchers. Romney loses on that, and shows one thing people simply miss:

Romney's "movement to center" late in the campaign has been scripted from the outset.

With Romney, Americans will still be buying a pig-in-a-poke of unknown, draconian Republican head-shed agenda items that will be pushed through with as much illegality as was apparent during the Bush Administration.

You have no idea what they are really up to, America, and your chain is still being jerked with Romney's latest flops to "bring in the center" -- the last box to check in the script.

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Dylan111New Haven

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Spin it all you want, but Mitt Romney clearly won that debate last night. Why? Because everybody says do, and perception is reality in this day and age. Romney is going to reap a whole boatload of money out of this, money which had begun to dry up as is rich backers began to fear his defeat. And there will be a lot more volunteers for his campaign, people energized by his victory.

Democrats who have been lulling themselves into a state of complacency because of the positive poll numbers and sites like Mr. Silver's 538 better wake up right now and make a commitment to personally keeping President Obama in the White House because he can't do it himself--even if he wipes the floor with Romney in the next two debates.

Ten bucks or two hours of your time calling voters can make a big difference if every Democrat participates.

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Joe From BostonMassachusetts

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So what happened to "severely conservative" MItt?

Somebody needs to ask that guy to show his ID before the next debate, because he sure wasn't the Mittens who has been advocating big tax cuts for the very wealthy.

And what's with the "revenue neutral" tax code changes? That implies no increase or decrease in tax revenues. Would somebody please explain how NOT changing tax revenues provides a reduction in the tax burden that Mittens says we need to make the economy grow.

He also threw Paul Ryan under the bus when he said that Obama should have agreed to Simpson Bowles. Maybe he does not remember that Paul Ryan was on the committee and Paul Ryan engineered enough NO votes from House members that the committee recommendation failed, and there was NOTHING for Obama to agree to. Ryan disagreed with the revenue enhancements that the committee concluded would be needed.

Romney astounded me (and not in a positive way) when he said: "Look, I got five boys. I'm used to people saying something that's not always true, but just keep on repeating it and ultimately hoping I'll believe it --"

What father says in public that his five kids LIE? ("I got five boys. I'm USED TO people saying something that's not always true, ...") Who taught them to do THAT? Doesn't look good for them, or for him.

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KMBoston, MA

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Last night Romney looked, spoke and acted like a President with a plan. Obama was weak, intimidated, puzzled, and just didn't have any plan oh, wait a minute he did "raise taxes." How does that help the middle class or any class of Americans?

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ScottBoston

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Romney only won with bravado - not facts.

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Lee in IowaDes Moines

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Nate, please take a second look at CNN's "insta-poll" before you cite it; I'm reading elsewhere that their "sample" was no sample, but a group of over-50 conservatives from the deep South. Possible??

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MBBrooklyn

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The most accurate description I've seen so far of Obama's performance was (as much as it pains me to say it) from the Weekly Standard, cited in today's Times: "Obama often found himself at the end of a verbal cul-de-sac, seemingly unaware of how he’d ended up there." It's true. His compounded verbiage trapped him and made him look as though he were scrambling while trying to remember what was just said, while Romney appeared confident, organized, and, despite the blatant untruths and evasions, convincing. (Well, he didn't convince me, but I am a news junkie, not an undecided voter, etc.)

Obama missed about a dozen opportunities to rattle Romney going into the homestretch. As brilliant as I think the president is and as much as I believe in (some of) his ideas, he made me want to turn him off last night. He reminded me of students in my writing seminar who start off with some interesting, clear insight, but then try to make it all seem more complex and substantive by burying it in some garbled, Yoda-voiced academic-seeming sentence structures. NEEDS IMPROVEMENT.

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Richard Pollaratampa

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Last night was emabarrassing to a whole generation of Democrats. Obama is the only thing standing between us and a radical shift in the direction of this country. You would have thought that he would have had the decency to prepare for the debate? What I have seen over the years is that actions which reinforce a narrative about a candidate tend to sway voters. (See Hillary Bosnia and Romney 47%). The debate reinforced the image that Obama is not only arrogant and dismissive, but wholly unprepared to lead the country. Watching last night made me pine for Jimmy Carter. At least with Carter you got an honest performance....

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planetguyCA,CA

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As an Obama supporter I can be objective in writing that he "lost" the debate. His statements were rambling, unfocused, and way too long for effective rhetoric. Romney's statements were pithy, sharp, and untruthful. The last attribute is not necessarily a negative as a debate strategy unless your opponent can succesfully challenge. And in this case Obama did not.

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firstoffCalifornia

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I find it odd and slightly discomfitting that even the "experts" are more concerned about style than substance in this first debate.

Apparently lying while looking good matters.

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DJMNew York, NY

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Hopefully Obama probably learned his lesson. Romney will twist anything, state bald faced lies, and change his positions so that his opponent loses concentration. In the next 1-2 weeks, as people parse Romney's words, they will realize that a slick salesman was trying to sell them snake oil. He almost succeeded, but one has to be gullible.

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PeterNew Haven

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I watched most of the debate while not actually looking at the screen that often, so I got something of a "radio" experience. What I heard was Romney delivering punches (infused with lies and misleading statements, but punches nonetheless) and Obama's giving slow, halting and flat responses. He seemed to be straining to recall lines he wanted to use, and he struggled to get his message across. I will be voting for Obama regardless of the debates, and I find Romney to be slimier than a used car salesman, but Romney was clearly the more comfortable and energetic speaker last night. I hope Obama picks up the passion next time and goes after Romney for some of the many, many flaws in his politics and his persona.

Oct. 4, 2012 at 8:09 a.m.Share this on FacebookShare this on Twitter

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