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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (38625)10/8/2012 3:43:56 PM
From: penthouse mike  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 219358
 
Is your NT still short or turning neutral?



To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (38625)10/8/2012 3:48:40 PM
From: Keith Feral  Respond to of 219358
 
Apple is showing some real stock selling. Google just getting warmed up. The market is doing a much better job of not selling off indiscriminately for each piece of bad news.

I think Apple should be rated as a sell right now with a price target of $550 to match the price mix of their iPhone lineup. That would give the stock a decent yield around 2.5% and see if they can't come up with more market share to compensate for lower selling prices of the iPhone this year.

Apple has basically won the world series of technology for the past 4 years in a row with the same product, with slight adjustments to the hardware. Cell phones are clearly the most overpriced sector of the technology market right now. Price decay will hurt margins faster than Apple can come up with new customers over the next year, and then they have another year's worth of price cuts to pass out.

QCOM would be another fundamental stock to short as cell phone prices max out this year. They will see incrementally lower royalties next year, and the price of their wireless chips have probably maxed. That's a lot of risk for a 1.6% on Apple or QCOM at 5 times sales for two of the most expensive stocks in the world right now.