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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DD™ who wrote (6132)	12/1/1997 12:45:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13925

"What does Chip know that we don't?" Nothing. Pick n stocks at random. Tell people that n/2 are going to go up and the other n/2 are going to go down. When the stocks do what you said they would do (more than n/2 will do this, due to normal fluctuations - that is, more than n/2 will show a profit at SOME point) remind the people that you told this to. You will be thought to be a genious. Of course, some stocks aren't going to do what you said they would do. Avoid speaking to the people you told about these ones for a few days. ;) This is a variation on an old cold-calling broker scam. In the scam, the cold-calling broker tells 1/2 of the the people he calls that XYZ is going up, and the other half that XYZ is going down. He keeps track of who he has told what, calls back the ones he was right on, and many of them will sign-up with this genious stock broker. :) Try this simple test. Pick n stocks at random. As a variation, pick n "hot" stocks, or n stocks that you follow. On the day that make the picks, choose the lowest price (or highest, if shorting) and that is your "entry price". (OK, add or subtract 1/4 as appropriate to add believability.) Now, follow the daily fluctuations for several days (say, 1-2 weeks). In what percentage of the stocks could you have claimed a profit (either long or short) at SOME point? That is, if you are able to make the claim after the fact? My guess is that it's well over 50%, on both the long and short side. So, anybody can prove themselves a genious. You don't actually have to wait several days to do this test. Just pick your random stocks (no fair using "hot stocks" or stocks that you are familiar with in the quickie version!), go back a week, pick your entry points, and then review the past week's prices.