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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sr K who wrote (123413)	10/13/2012 11:14:04 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 149317

I reread my post from that date and it was shockingly accurate. I'll repost it here along with bracketed editorials, so that everyone can see what I posted was prescient.... ------------ Message 27823538 That's hopium. Those charts show an unambiguous rolling over, meaning an upside down "U" shape. We can HOPE they will reverse trend and start recovering, but when you have inverted U's across every major economy in the globe, that is an ominous picture. I have a saying for times like this. "You can piss into a tsunami heading towards you and hope to change its direction, but that's not going to change the outcome." Hope is infectious, but reality can bludgeon hope occasionally. I'm 99% sure, this will be one of those occasions. The good news is you'll know whether hope or reality won within the next 7-10 months. It will be plenty evident by then. My guess is we'll see downward revisions in major companies in the US this quarter [mindmeld update => that's exactly what happened]. We've already seen it from Intel and Dupont. That will be the first wave, followed by major revisions downward in projected growth of the SP500 and GDP for 2012 [mindmeld update => that's exactly what happened...we've seen revisions downward in both prior prints and in future forecasts] Stock prices will follow [mindmeld update => we reached lows in May'12, but have recovered since QE3 rumors surfaced] Then in the next 7-10 months, I would not at all be surprised by a negative GDP print, unless our government is so far gone that they print it positive in the first revision and only allow the reality to leak out quietly in the second or third revisions, when the masses aren't watching. [mindmeld update => no negative print, but 1.3% is stall speed] There's only one thing that could materially change my prediction above, and that is if the Fed shoots for the moon with QE3. If they do QE3 in sufficient quantities, like a trillion dollars, then they can kick the can down the road beyond 7-10 months. [mindmeld update => shockingly accurate...it's exactly what I predicted ]However, the consequence will be even more inflation. So take your pick: 1) downturn in the economy 2) more inflation that hides the underlying rotten economic foundation Bookmark this post and tell me if I was wrong 7-10 months from now.