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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (123458)	10/11/2012 10:20:31 AM
From: ChinuSFO	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 149317

Looks like you are shocked. I have an easy solution for you. Do what Welch did. Just go out say your professionals in the Govt. cooked the numbers. Or better still make a statement that the BLS uses tools that are messed up.. Oh these folks keep coming up with things that amazes me. I bet the next thing they will say that Bush was not all that bad since he didn't screw things up that bad. They find it very very hard to acknowledge that Obama did a good job turning it around. Instead they will claim credit for Bush juts like they did with giving Bush credit for killing Osama.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (123458)	10/11/2012 11:40:57 AM
From: tejek	Respond to of 149317

National Journal sums up the swing states [movement since same pollster's last poll]: The polls, all conducted after the debate and released early on Thursday, show a tight race across most of the states, though they also indicate that there has been little relative movement from surveys conducted prior to the debate:-- Colorado: A new CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll shows Romney inching in front of Obama, 48 percent to 47 percent, well within the poll's margin of error. [Romney +2] -- Florida: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows a tied race, with Obama leading Romney, 48 percent to 47 percent. [no change] -- Ohio: Obama remains ahead of Romney in the Buckeye State, 51 percent to 45 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. [Romney +2] -- Virginia: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows the two candidates virtually tied, 48 percent for Romney, 47 percent for Obama. [Romney +3] But a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll shows Obama leading, 51 percent to 46 percent. [Obama +1] -- Wisconsin: Obama leads in a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll, 50 percent to 47 percent, within the poll's margin of error. [Romney +3] "The shifts are too small to measure," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown of the three surveys his institute conducted for CBS News and The New York Times, "but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call."

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (123458)	10/13/2012 11:23:28 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 149317

I saw that, but that also is subject to speculation. I'm a statistician by trade. When I see 3 sigma prints, I just don't believe that is the start of a new trend. I have to see that result in a similar size printing 6-8 times before, statistically that means a new trend to me. The probability is extraordinarily high that this was just a data blip and nothing more. We'll see how that trend moves in the next couple of prints. The other thing to note is that jobs being created consist of a shockingly large amount of part time jobs. In addition, these reports are ignoring a sizeable amount of people who are discouraged workers. Why? It's just to make the rate look better. There are just too many problems with the way the BLS comes up with these numbers. It's not a conspiracy theory. Rather, it's just bad statistics. It's like the gov is stuck in a timewarp and is using methods that only high school graduates would use, instead of more sophisticated methods to track the real economy that more highly educated people would use. But that's the gov for you. It's no wonder people joke about "it's good enough for government work". Well maybe it is, but it sure isn't good enough to tell us what's really going on.