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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sr K who wrote (123858)10/15/2012 1:24:06 PM
From: RetiredNow  Respond to of 149317
 
That report is unbelievable. Literally.

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Retail Sales: Oh C'mon

There comes a point where one has to raise the "BS!" flag high and wave it big. This would be one of those times.
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $412.9 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.4 percent (±0.7%) above September 2011. Total sales for the July through September 2012 period were up 4.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2012 percent change was revised from 0.9 percent (±0.5%) to 1.2 percent (±0.3%).
This is literally all seasonal adjustment.

Yes, I mean it.

First, the unadjusted 2011-2012 number is up 3.02%, not 5.4% ($379,330 -> 390,766.) And there are no "seasonal adjustments" in an annualized change.

Second, taking out food and energy it's a 2.83% increase (284,232 - 292,270); both are about 1% when CPI is removed (if you believe CPI.)

Just look at the below from the release, and find me just one unadjusted increase month-over-month.

Yeah.



market-ticker.org



To: Sr K who wrote (123858)10/15/2012 1:25:15 PM
From: RetiredNow  Respond to of 149317
 
And now for some sobering news not so exposed to the hopium of massively ADJUSTED numbers...

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Empire: Negative, But "Better Than Expected"

Another bad print...

The October Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to decline for a third consecutive month. The general business conditions index increased four points but remained negative at -6.2. The new orders index rose five points to -9.0, while the shipments index fell nine points to -6.4, its first negative reading in more than a year. The prices paid index was little changed at 17.2, and the prices received index held steady at 4.3. Employment conditions weakened, with the index for number of employees declining five points to -1.1 and the average workweek index falling three points to -4.3. Indexes for the six-month outlook suggested that conditions were expected to improve, although the level of optimism among manufacturers remained low relative to earlier this year.
Uh huh.

Now shipments have gone negative, which means that we are now where order flow has been "caught up with" and shipments are declining. Unfilled orders are well below zero, indicating that there is lots of slack in the system -- indeed, unfilled orders have been negative for the entire last year! Delivery time is also now negative -- there is simply no pressure on capacity at all.

As expected when all the pumping on CNBS and elsewhere goes just too damn far, eventually employment suffers too. First, as is usual, was workweek, which peaked in March and has been on a decline since, crossing into negative territory last month. Following is now actual employment levels, with that beginning to decline in August and crossing negative this month.

One important note on forward expectations -- employees are now flat and workweek is -11.83, a massive decline. This is not today's number -- it is expectations six months out.

This report is weak; it not only says "recession now", it says recession six months from now, at least from an employment perspective.

Only employed people pay taxes.