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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (124283)	10/18/2012 4:52:51 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 149317

What are the numbers in the battleground states of OH, WI, IA, NV and CO. It does not matter what folks say in TX ro the mid west or CA, NY etc. We know Gore got the majority vote and still lost the elections.

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (124283)	10/18/2012 6:17:10 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 149317

Romney Opens Stunning Seven-Point Lead In Gallup Poll It’s probably too good to be true; the venerable Gallup Poll is turning into an outlier. But it sure is fun to see: Romney 52%, Obama 45%, among likely voters. Gallup uses a 7-day rolling average, which means that all of these numbers post-date Joe Biden’s performance, and one-seventh of the responses are after Tuesday night’s second presidential debate. While, as I say, the seven-point margin is an outlier, there is no doubt that the tide is flowing in Romney’s direction, and no sign so far that the Obama campaign’s desperate efforts have done anything to stem it. Its a meaningless poll. Have you looked at the cross tabs? Gallup shows the South up +22 for Romney. That's way way beyond anything that happened in 2008. It suggests most southern black and Latino folks will be voting for Romney. It suggests the state polls for TX, FL and GA are total lies. Why? Because those states are the population centers of the South and none of their polls have shown Romney more than +12 and that was in TX. Most polls for GA have been between 4-8 pts. and FL -2-4pts to +8. In other words, Gallup is FOS. BTW they made the same polling mistakes in 2010 and 2008.

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (124283)	10/18/2012 9:35:02 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 149317

To whit: Be Careful With the Gallup Poll Nate Silver comments on the Gallup tracking poll which shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by seven points today -- results which "are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case." "In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large. Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 -- just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie."