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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sr K who wrote (124317)	10/19/2012 2:30:04 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 149317

BTW, I didn't say that I ONLY look at unadjusted data. Rather, I said I look at both the headline, adjusted figures and the underlying unadjusted data. What I've learned over many years is that sometimes the assumptions and models that are developed spit out data points that just don't make sense, because no model is perfect. So if you stay close to the unadjusted input numbers, then you can see when outliers are likely. That helps you decide when outliers can be ignored versus when they may be an important start of a new trend. Sometimes, paying attention to unadjusted numbers can help you even improve your model. Anyway, with the claims, Unemployment Rate, and CPI data put out by the government, I've learned you need to really pay attention to the details of the underlying data. The Headline data is significantly smoothed and leaves out quite a bit of data that should be part of the picture....at least if you care about policy making.