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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (41240)	12/1/1997 5:52:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 186894

J, >>>I am really not thinking you are going to get to point where Intel trades at 30x year ahead estimates. It would be nice, i guess, but i wonder if i would even hold through that...i would probably be gone at 25x. <<< I am also quite perplexed by this. Could anyone explain it to me. Who determines PE? How is this derived (what is the formula)? Why is AMAT at 25, Altera at 34, NSM at 25, MOT at 37 and INTC at 20? Sincerely, Mary PS: Wiseguys need not respond

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (41240)	12/1/1997 7:35:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

J and Joey, I agree with J that Intel cannot expect a significant PE expansion, there is too much risk that a downturn in the PC industry would idle all those expensive fabs. Intel, no matter how good a company they are, is 100% tied to the PC growth rate, which they influence but don't control. Intel, as of last Friday, was trading at a 20 trailing PE vs. the Dow at 20 and the S&P 500 at 23.5. In order for Intel to increase in price one of three thing has to happen: 1. The market has to be awarded a higher overall PE, taking Intel with it. 2. Intel's fundamentals have to change in relation to the rest of the market. 3. The PERCEPTION of Intels fundamentals has to change in relation to the overall market. I think number 3 is the most probable. 1998 earnings have been revised down by virtually every analyst, Intel has NOT given any guidance, to my knowledge, to earn these revisions for 1998. I don't know if the expectations have hit bottom in the sentiment towards tech stocks and Intel, but it may have. John