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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jlallen who wrote (57432)

10/22/2012 11:08:07 AM

From: Peter Dierks

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588

New Unskewed Polls summary:

UnSkewed Polling Data Monday, October 22, 2012 10:05:35 AM
Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Skew	Obama(D)	Romney(R)	Spread
UnSkewed Avg.	10/7 - 10/16	--	--	+4.5 D	45.4	49.9	Romney +4.5
NBC News/WSJ	10/16 - 10/20	816 LV	3.4	+6 D	47.0	50.0	Romney +3
Hartford Courant/UConn	10/11 - 10/16	1023 LV	3.0	+8 D	45.0	48.0	Romney + 3
Politico/GWU/Battleground	10/11 - 10/14	1000 LV	3.1	+3 D	46.0	51.0	Romney +5
Wash. Post/ABC News	10/10 - 10/13	923 LV	3.5	+9 D	47.0	51.0	Romney +4
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun	10/8 - 10/10	1360 LV	2.7	+3 D	45.0	48.0	Romney +3
Fox News	10/7 - 10/9	1109 LV	3.0	+1 D	43.0	46.0	Romney +3
IBD/TIPP	10/11 - 10/16	931 LV	3.5	+8 D	45.0	52.0	Romney +7
Rasmussen	10/15 - 10/17	1500 LV	3.0	+3 D	46.0	51.0	Romney +5
Gallup	10/10 - 10/16	2700 LV	2.0	+1 D	45.0	52.0	Romney +7

unskewedpolls.com

To: jlallen who wrote (57432)	10/23/2012 10:06:08 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Respond to of 71588

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race Released October 16, 2012 The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama's 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes. QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 129,170,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama. Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote. Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following: Colorado: 50-48 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado Connecticut: 52-45 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat Florida: 52-48 Romney Iowa: 52-47 Romney -- many don't expect this Maine: 49-47 Obama -- much closer than expected Michigan: 50-49 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry Nevada: 50-48 Romney -- this will surprise many New Hampshire: 52-47 Romney New Jersey: 50-48 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number New Mexico: 52-47 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico Ohio: 51-48 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney Oregon: 50-47 Obama -- closer than expected Pennsylvania: 50-49 Romney -- big time upset Washington: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing. unskewedpolls.com