Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Irvine Sensors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBMac325I who wrote (345)	12/1/1997 9:04:00 PM
From: mig driver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1673

JB- I'm probably not the right guy to ask because I'm unabashedly optimistic of Irvine's potential to recover from these levels. You could say-"I drink the koolaid". Additionally, my risk tolerance may be higher than yours, my financial objectives different, and so forth. All that as a given, I'd recommend this to anyone. I was an early investor in 3Com, Mips (now Silicon Graphics), Vitessse, and a biotech company called ICOS. I say this as an illustrative point because I've seen serious problems with other technology innovators. I'm very comfortable with my current position in IRSN. It has as much potential as Mips or Vitesse. In fact, one of my concerns with Irvine is that they will be bought out just before their real potential begins to explode on the upside. Someone will get them on the cheap. While selling at $8 may sound attractive today, it may be a steal in two years. Assume that Novalog and MSI achieve $50M in sales within five years. Not explosive growth like an Iomega but nevertheless an impressive achievement. How would the market value IRSN if two subsidiaries moved it into the $100M sales category? What institutional pressures would this put on the stock price? This company was a $5 to $9 stock for several years when it was nothing but an R&D hobby shop. Discounting the memory stacking operation, the digital e-film project, the UCSD project and the ATO technology core still leaves you with Novalog and MSI producing real commercial technology today. There is no reason not to see this stock return to previous levels. Longer term, it could do much better if Jim Evert and his team can execute effectively. This will require some level of patience though from the long term investor. For example, my horizon is the year 2000 and beyond. Therefore, I accumulate the stock whenever I can. What is required for Irvine to succeed? It will take fiscal discipline, tough choices, R&D discipline, and a constant market focus. The talent is there (John Carson, John Murray, Floyd Eide, Lynn O'Mara, Bruce Totty, Bert Hornbeck, Ying Hsu, John Stuart, and of course Jim Evert). Luck will also play a part. Have you heard of a company called Intel? Years ago, when they were an R&D hobby shop, they assessed their commercial potential across a range of product lines. Their eventual success was based on a product which ranked 50th in terms of their internal assessment of commercially viable products. They had great technology, but they were also lucky. Irvine has great technology. If they work hard enough-perhaps they will create a little luck as well. Good Luck, MiG