Full disclosure: Charlie Cook leans right
October 19, 2012 National Presidential Polling
Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Listed by Date and by Lead Margin The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats nationally. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart will be updated daily leading up to the November 6 election.
Sorted Chronologically by DateLeadPollster (Partisan Lean)Obama %Romney %Sample Size and TypeDate|
| Romney +6 | Gallup (7-day) Likely Voters* | 45% | 51% | 2700 LV | October 12-18, 2012 | | Romney +1 | Gallup (7-day) Reg. Voters* | 47% | 48% | 2200 RV | October 12-18, 2012 | | Obama +3 | ABC/Washington Post | 49% | 46% | 923 LV | October 10-13, 2012, 2012 | | Obama +1 | Politico/GWU/Battleground | 49% | 48% | 1000 LV | October 7-11, 2012 | | Romney +1 | Fox News | 45% | 46% | 1109 LV | October 7-9, 2012, 2012 | | Romney +4 | Pew Research | 45% | 49% | 1112 LV | October 4-7, 2012 | | Obama +3 | Gallup (21-day) Reg. Voters | 49% | 46% | 9668 RV | Sept 24- Oct 14, 2012 | | Obama +3 | CNN/ORC | 50% | 47% | 783 LV | September 28-30, 2012 | | Even | United Technologies/ National Journal | 47% | 47% | 789 LV | September 27-30, 2012 | | Obama +3 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | 49% | 46% | 832 LV | September 26-30, 2012 | | Obama +7 | NPR/Dem Corps (D)/Resurgent Republic (R) | 51% | 43% | 800 LV | September 26-30, 2012 | | Obama +4 | Quinnipiac Univ. | 49% | 45% | 1912 LV | September 25-30, 2012 | | Obama +6 | Bloomberg | 49% | 43% | 1007 LV | September 21-24, 2012 | Obama +7
| Allstate/National Journal | 50% | 43% | 1055 LV | September 15-19, 2012 | | Obama +1 | AP/GfK | 47% | 46% | 807 LV | September 13-17, 2012 | | Obama +3 | CBS/NYT | 49% | 46% | 1170 RV | September 8-12, 2012 | | Obama +5 | Democracy Corps (D) | 50% | 45% | 1000 LV | September 8-12, 2012 | | Obama +1.9 | Average |
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| *Gallup daily tracking data and sample information current as of 1pm ET, October 19, 2012
National Presidential Polling Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Listed by Date and by Lead MarginThe chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats nationally. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones.
Sorted by Best Romney to Best ObamaLeadPollster (Partisan Lean)Obama %Romney %Sample Size and TypeDate|
| Romney +6 | Gallup (7-day) Likely Voters* | 45% | 51% | 2700 LV | October 12-18, 2012 | | Romney +4 | Pew Research | 45% | 49% | 1112 LV | October 4-7, 2012 | | Romney +1 | Fox News | 45% | 46% | 1109 LV | October 7-9, 2012, 2012 | | Romney +1 | Gallup (7-day) Reg. Voters* | 47% | 48% | 2200 RV | October 12-18, 2012 | | Even | United Technologies/ National Journal | 47% | 47% | 789 LV | September 27-30, 2012 | | Obama +1 | AP/GfK | 47% | 46% | 807 LV | September 13-17, 2012 | | Obama +1 | Politico/GWU/Battleground | 49% | 48% | 1000 LV | October 7-11, 2012 | | Obama +3 | ABC/Washington Post | 49% | 46% | 923 LV | October 10-13, 2012, 2012 | | Obama +3 | CBS/NYT | 49% | 46% | 1170 RV | September 8-12, 2012 | | Obama +3 | CNN/ORC | 50% | 47% | 783 LV | September 28-30, 2012 | | Obama +3 | Gallup (3-week) | 49% | 46% | 9668 RV | Sept 24- Oct 14, 2012 | | Obama +3 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | 49% | 46% | 832 LV | September 26-30, 2012 | | Obama +4 | Quinnipiac Univ. | 49% | 45% | 1912 LV | September 25-30, 2012 | | Obama +5 | Democracy Corps (D) | 50% | 45% | 1000 LV | September 8-12, 2012 | | Obama +6 | Bloomberg | 49% | 43% | 1007 LV | September 21-24, 2012 | Obama +7
| Allstate/National Journal | 50% | 43% | 1055 LV | September 15-19, 2012 | | Obama +7 | NPR/Dem Corps (D)/Resurgent Republic (R) | 51% | 43% | 800 LV | September 26-30, 2012 | | Obama +1.9 | Average |
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| *Gallup 7-day data and sample information current as of 1pm ET, October 19, 2012
Battleground State Presidential Polling Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Listed by State and by Lead Margin The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats in swing states. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart also includes the private characterizations of top pollsters and strategists on where they see each state.
Sorted Alphabetically by StateState (Electoral Vote Count)Current Cook RatingD/R Pollster Characterization*Pollster (Partisan Lean)Poll ResultsDate|
| Colorado (9) | Toss Up | Obama +1 to Obama +5 | Grove Insight (D) Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Selzer/Univ of Denver NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +3: 47% - 44% Obama +1: 48% - 47% Obama +4: 47% - 43% Obama +5: 50% - 45% | October 15-16, 2012 October 7-9, 2012 October 4-5, 2012 September 16-18, 2012 | | Florida (29) | Lean R | Romney +2 to Obama +1 | Fox News CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT | Romney +3: 48% - 45% Romney +1: 49% - 48% Obama +1: 47% - 46% Obama +9: 53% - 44% | October 17-18, 2012 October 17-19, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 September 18-24, 2012 | | Iowa (6) | Toss Up | Romney +1 to Obama +7 | NBC/WSJ/Marist Des Moines Register TIR/Voter/Cnsmr Rsrch (R) NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +8: 51% - 43% Obama +4: 49% - 45% Romney +1: 47% - 46% Obama +8: 50% - 42% | October 15-17, 2012 September 23-26, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 September 16-18, 2012 | | Michigan (16) | Likely D | Obama +7 to +8 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +8: 52% - 44% | September 14-18, 2012 | | Nevada (6) | Toss Up | Obama +3 to +6 | Mellman Group (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC | Obama +8: 51% - 43% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +3: 49% - 46% | October 15-17, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 September 14-18, 2012 | | New Hampshire (4) | Toss Up | Obama +2 to +5 | WMUR-TV/UNH WMUR-TV/UNH NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +6: 47% - 41% Obama +15: 49% - 54% Obama +7: 51% - 44% | Sept 30 - Oct 6 September 27-30, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 | | North Carolina (15) | Lean R | Romney +1 to +2 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +2: 48% - 46% | September 23-25, 2012 | | Ohio (18) | Lean D | Obama +4 to +7 | Fox News NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +3: 46% - 43% Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +4: 51% - 47% Obama +8: 51% - 43% | October 17-18, 2012 October 4-9, 2012 October 5-8, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 | | Pennsylvania (20) | Likely D | Obama +7 to +9 | Quinnipiac Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT | Obama +4: 50%-46% Obama +12: 54% - 42% | October 12-14, 2012 September 18-24, 2012 | | Virginia (13) | Lean R | Even to Romney +2 | Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NBC/WSJ/Marist NBC/WSJ/Marist Suffolk Univ./NBC12 | Obama +5: 51% - 46% Romney +1: 48% - 47% Obama +2: 48% - 46% Obama +2: 46% - 44% | October 7-9, 2012 October 4-9, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 September 24-26, 2012 | | Wisconsin (10) | Lean D | Obama +3 to +7 | NBC/WSJ/Marist Marquette Law School Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Marquette Law School | Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +1: 49% - 48% Obama +3: 50% - 47% Obama +11: 53% - 42% | October 15-17, 2012 October 11 - 14 October 7-9, 2012 September 27-30, 2012 | *Characterizations are from private conversations between Charlie Cook and top Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists Battleground State Presidential Polling Live-Interviewer/Land-line and Cellphone Interviews -- Listed by State and by Lead Margin The chart below provides a rundown of recent presidential election trial heats in swing states. The polls featured here were conducted solely via live interviewing of voters on land-lines or cellphones. This chart also includes the private characterizations of top pollsters and strategists on where they see each state.
Sorted by Best Romney to Best ObamaState (Electoral Vote Count)Current Cook RatingD/R Pollster Characterization*Pollster (Partisan Lean)Poll ResultsDate|
| North Carolina (15) | Lean R | Romney +1 to +2 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +2: 48% - 46% | September 23-25, 2012 | | Florida (29) | Lean R | Romney +2 to Obama +1 | Fox News CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT | Romney +3: 48% - 45% Romney +1: 49% - 48% Obama +1: 47% - 46% Obama +9: 53% - 44% | October 17-18, 2012 October 17-19, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 September 18-24, 2012 | | Virginia (13) | Lean R | Even to Romney +2 | Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS NBC/WSJ/Marist NBC/WSJ/Marist Suffolk Univ./NBC12 | Obama +5: 51% - 46% Romney +1: 48% - 47% Obama +2: 48% - 46% Obama +2: 46% - 44% | October 7-9, 2012 October 4-9, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 September 24-26, 2012 | | Colorado (9) | Toss Up | Obama +1 to Obama +5 | Grove Insight (D) Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Selzer/Univ of Denver NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +3: 47% - 44% Obama +1: 48% - 47% Obama +4: 47% - 43% Obama +5: 50% - 45% | October 15-16, 2012 October 7-9, 2012 October 4-5, 2012 September 16-18, 2012 | | Iowa (6) | Toss Up | Romney +1 to Obama +7 | NBC/WSJ/Marist Des Moines Register TIR/Voter/Cnsmr Rsrch (R) NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +8: 51% - 43% Obama +4: 49% - 45% Romney +1: 47% - 46% Obama +8: 50% - 42% | October 15-17, 2012 September 23-26, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 September 16-18, 2012 | | New Hampshire (4) | Toss Up | Obama +2 to +5 | WMUR-TV/UNH WMUR-TV/UNH NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +6: 47% - 41% Obama +15: 49% - 54% Obama +7: 51% - 44% | Sept 30 - Oct 6 September 27-30, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 | | Nevada (6) | Toss Up | Obama +3 to +6 | Mellman Group (D) NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC | Obama +8: 51% - 43% Obama +2: 49% - 47% Obama +3: 49% - 46% | October 15-17, 2012 September 23-25, 2012 September 14-18, 2012 | | Wisconsin (10) | Lean D | Obama +3 to +7 | NBC/WSJ/Marist Marquette Law School Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Marquette Law School | Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +1: 49% - 48% Obama +3: 50% - 47% Obama +11: 53% - 42% | October 15-17, 2012 October 11 - 14 October 7-9, 2012 September 27-30, 2012 | | Ohio (18) | Lean D | Obama +4 to +7 | Fox News NBC/WSJ/Marist CNN/ORC NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +3: 46% - 43% Obama +6: 51% - 45% Obama +4: 51% - 47% Obama +8: 51% - 43% | October 17-18, 2012 October 4-9, 2012 October 5-8, 2012 September 26-30, 2012 | | Michigan (16) | Likely D | Obama +7 to +8 | NBC/WSJ/Marist | Obama +8: 52% - 44% | September 14-18, 2012 | | Pennsylvania (20) | Likely D | Obama +7 to +9 | Quinnipiac Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT | Obama +4: 50%-46% Obama +12: 54% - 42% | October 12-14, 2012 September 18-24, 2012 | *Characterizations are from private conversations between Charlie Cook and top Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists
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