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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (18821)	12/1/1997 6:12:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42771

This thread is going through a cleansing of sorts. I like all this negative talk from stalwarts who have or about close to selling out. This final capitulation - tapping of longterm goodwill - usually comes at significant market turns and we are right in the middle of a big one with Novell. I happen to think Novell is cutting through a lot of BS - streamlining marketing feedback and support by pushing more work into the field among field reps who are more in direct contact major core users. The alliances are coming together nicely - Partnering with Compaq - great success at COMDEX - Oracle, Sun, IBM, Netscape, etc. They are breaking tradition by getting products out the door, on-time will good reviews and feedback. The feedback I'm getting from beta users over their recent IP-compatible MOAB release is fantastic. And the offerings from Novonyx are very attractive and compelling. As for Java, I personally think it will be a resounding success, shifting the entire networking landscape in its wake. Every networking technology shop I talk to is up to their eyeballs in Java app development - they aren't waiting for Gates to bastardize an NT-compatible version. Gates is missing this development more broadly than he missed out on the Internet when it first hit home four years ago. Sure, you can never underestimate the power of MS and Gate's management skills and business acumen, but I think they are all running scared these days. Schmidt has brought in totally new management. They are bringing fresh ideas, are excited and will have a huge positive impact. The best thing Novell has going for it is Schmidt himself - a techno-visionary who's not afraid to break convention and work outside the box - so to speak. His latest CNBC interview notwithstanding, he is inspiring and is leading the way. I am not a ra-ra Novell investor. I have been extremely critical of Novell in the past, called for the decline in the $6's and have been looking ever since for major continued signs of total capitulation as I continue building a longterm position. I strongly believe Novell's "mindshare' has turned upward for the better on a longer term basis. The stock price will eventually follow. The market discounts 6-12 months in advance, but with Novell the bearishness is so thick you can perhaps spread the horizon even further. Upcoming migrations to MOAB next year, plus expanding momemtum behind their BoardManager and Managewise offerrings, a continuation of growth in their market for Groupwise and related products, a growing market for NDS-ready administration products and tools plus all the future growth from their pure-Java-on-the-server application platform products - all will make compelling gains in revenue, marketshare and mindshare. The chorus of whining and complaining is music to my ears but will eventually die out and fade away as these investors reach for other alternatives. All in all, we have reached a positive turing point. If you are shorting Novell, from here on out, all surprises will be to the upside. Go Novell! And Good Luck!

To: Don Earl who wrote (18821)	12/1/1997 6:28:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 42771

Don, I used to call what you refer to in your last paragraph as the John Young training (brainwashing) period. To all Novell longs: I sincerely hope this company proves me wrong. I am chalk full of bitter feelings due to losses that should have never been. One incredible blunder after another...the folks responsible are still there. I used to be as optimistic as the most optimistic here. I actually feel bad about some of my posts on this thread, not my style. There is a natural attraction to the stock though, it's cheap, has huge installed user base, etc, etc, and the company feels the turnaround is right around the corner...so is all of our graves. I feel the company is run by some very dishonest people who really don't care about shareholders. They have their own agenda and I have no idea what it is. I suspect though that Novonyx and all the new construction in San Jose and Provo (or is it Orem) all has something to do with it. IMO, either this company is literally stumbling blindly into the future, clueless, or there is some kind of grand plan that may or may not benefit shareholders. Based on my experiences, the Novell BOD will do what's right for them long before they give shareholders any consideration...as long as they can make it seem that it's within the bounds of the law. I speculated over a year ago on this thread that one of the few explanations for the companies behaviour was intentionally driving the stock price down. I wonder if maybe I was closer than I realized. Again, I wish all longs well and feel for ya. My comments have been directed more at potential investors, while allowing me to vent the anger I still feel. This company never should have ended up like this. Thanks to their manipulation of the channel we never knew the company has been in trouble for some time. Salah figured it out first and documented it several thousand posts back. This mess backs up to John Young and the board. Considering their performance, I hope the big Novell shareholders wake up and campaign against re-election of any BOD members with the possible exception of Dr Schmidt. Personally I feel sorry for the guy. Potential investors beware. sf