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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39310)	10/23/2012 12:31:19 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219986

The only DOW components that look painfully extended are the MRK and PFE and XOM and CVX. XOM could drift back to $80 and still have a yield less than 3%. Clearly, I'm not a big fan of oil this year! Never going to be a fan of oil companies until prices get back to something more realistic like $65 a barrel. Why should we care if Iran shuts off oil production. They could lose 30 to 50% of their revenues if global oil prices were to fall towards marginal cost of production next year anyhow. They are just trying to generate risk premiums. It might screw up Europe and Japan, but US doesn't get any oil from Iran in the past 20 years anyways. That's why WTI is more than $20 cheaper than Brent. I think half that premium will be gone within a year as Brent heads into the low $90's. Cheap oil and gas will be one of the biggest factors to offset the fiscal cliff.