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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39318)	10/23/2012 12:56:40 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220039

Unfortunately, the market dumps off everytime that lower oil prices begin to present themselves. OTOH, the market wouldn't need to keep dropping if they simply kept the price of oil at a reasonable price. I thought we had the whole thing fixed after last June when oil prices got into the high $70's, but then the sanctions kicked in against Iran. Now, OPEC is replacing that production loss, so I think we'll get back into the high $70's by year end. That would be a $10 to $15 decline from the end of 2011. First time in years where oil prices have been lower. The last time that we showed a significant improvement in global growth was the first quarter of 2009, which was the last time that oil and gas prices were affordable. If we could just keep oil prices around $65 to $75 for the next 4 years, global growth would look much better. I guess the big question is whether they have figured out a way to keep oil prices from creeping up the moment that global growth improves. I guess that's all up to Saudi Arabia. If they keep shutting down production every time Brent prices get close to $100, prices will keep rising. However, I'm more optimistic that they will let prices get closer to $92 for Brent next year, based on the backwardation of crude prices over the next several years. WTI has been stretching for the $85 level all year, and it's finally getting there. Brent is stretching for the $92 level, which I expect it to hit. At some point, the $20 premium between Brent and WTI has to shrink.