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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: eDollar.com who wrote (11025)12/1/1997 7:43:00 PM
From: craig crawford  Respond to of 45548
 
<< I guess he has some data for this drastic cut. >>

This was the "unofficial warning" that I was referring to.

On 11/05/97 COMS held an analyst only meeting. (Just like the one that was held back in January before the last COMS debacle).

Curiously that's when analysts started cutting numbers drastically. At one time analysts had estimates of 57 cents for the Q that just ended. Just recently they were at 53 cents and now they sit at around 44 cents.

Essentially COMS chose to give an earnings warning to the analysts in private rather than face the public. Even if COMS meets the revised estimates of 44 cents they will still have "missed" earnings by 17% (I'm using the 53 cent consensus not the 57 cent one because numbers often come down during the quarter).



To: eDollar.com who wrote (11025)12/1/1997 7:48:00 PM
From: Christopher White  Respond to of 45548
 
CT,

COMS' 13-VAMA crossed its 55-VAMA to the buy side today. As I posted earlier, on 7 of the last 7 occasions that this happened since January 1996, COMS had an intermediate term bull run with gains between 8 and 41 points to the top. I am long both COMS stock and Dec37.5c and will be looking to buy the Dec40p for say 1/4-3/8 and sell covered Dec35c within the next week to protect my position from the possibility of a bad earning on the 19th...I think the market is headed for a test of the old high of 8259 so being short or holding puts at this moment is just not a timely move. Look at INTC - it's breaking out, moving steadily up a gradual ascending trendline. It also closed above its 55-VAMA for the first time since Oct 9th. I see it moving to test 90 in short order - look at that volume in both the INQDec80c and the INQDec85c. CPQ is another good bull play, albeit riskier than INTC. CPQ has broken above the decending trendline drawn from the high on 15 Oct to the high on 18 Nov and is now clearly running above the ascending trendline drawn from the April low to the June low to the October low. CPQ's 100 day EOM and 3 vs. 22-VAMA are bullish - another up day or two on good volume and the 13-VAMA will cross the 55- VAMA to the buyside.

Christopher



To: eDollar.com who wrote (11025)12/1/1997 7:51:00 PM
From: Thomas Haegin  Respond to of 45548
 
Re: One analyst ... I guess he has some data for this drastic cut

I wouldn't be too sure about that.

The best thing would be lower modem inventory and still making around $0.40.

If I had a choice, I'd prefer lower EPS even a inventory write-off and get rid of those modems many of which may become obsolete or outdated technologywise tomorrow.

Thomas