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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (205773)	10/24/2012 10:36:36 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 542148

Brief Betting Surge for Romney on Intrade By NATHANIEL POPPER Published: October 23, 2012 For a moment it looked as if Mitt Romney’s chances of becoming the next president were up, way up. His odds of winning the election soared around 10 a.m. Tuesday to nearly 49 percent on the betting site Intrade, up about eight percentage points from a few minutes earlier. The numbers on Intrade, which have put the odds of President Obama’s winning on Nov. 6 at over 60 percent for the last several weeks, are closely watched by pundits and Wall Street traders because they are constantly updated based on wagers on the changing election odds. In 2008, the site’s users correctly predicted an Obama victory. But the system is relatively thinly traded and so a few politically motivated bettors with money to burn can place strategic wagers that push around the numbers displayed on the site. The economist Justin Wolfers, an expert on prediction markets, said that all the indicators from Tuesday morning suggested that someone, or a few people, intentionally inflated Mr. Romney’s numbers by offering a considerable premium over what shares were selling for. Unfortunately for Mr. Romney, they fell back almost as quickly, as other gamblers took advantage of the dislocation and pushed the price down. Mr. Wolfers estimated that it cost the traders responsible $1,250 to give Mr. Romney, the Republicans’ nominee, a six-minute surge. Intrade did not respond to requests for comment. The good news from Intrade wasn’t all so short-lived for Mr. Romney. His chances on the site did rise from where they had been before the final presidential debate on Monday night, ending Tuesday around 43.5 percent. nytimes.com