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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39375)	10/24/2012 7:58:31 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219317

I have no idea. The trend in the dollar is still negative on a monthly basis, but that could change quickly if DXY gets back to 82. OTOH, there seems to be a lot of support for WTI around $85, so maybe there is a lot of resistance for DXY around $80. If oil doesn't break $85, I wouldn't stay too attached to the dollar for very long. The strength in bond yields is the number 1 reason why I've been very reluctant to follow many sell signals lately. They are just hovering around the 1.80% level while everything else flushes out on it's own. Bond yields still seem like they want to move higher, which would be a positive reflection on economic growth pulling away from the 3rd quarter into the 4th quarter, as well it should. 4th quarter starts the economic growth which tends to peak by mid April. If the 10 year yield were back under 1.7% this week, I suspect the market would be much lower. So, I'm sticking with my interest sensitive positions like a good investor and not getting too worked up one way or another. I'm sticking with the pattern of raising cash towards the middle of the month and plucking out any profits, then scaling back into the market as the VIX moves higher into the end of the month. If we catch a nice employment next Friday before the election, we could get a nice pre election rally. Of course, I think the whole market will sour after the election - no matter who wins. That's when the dollar could really start to move through resistance. However, I think the market is still due for some good news to get everyone excited 1 more time.