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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39403)	10/25/2012 7:06:56 AM
From: SGJ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219268

Below that is the 200 day MA at 1375.92. I'm remaining bullish until that gets pierced and fails a retest. stockcharts.com

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (39403)	10/25/2012 8:35:42 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219268

I used to draw trendlines like that but now I don't. Here is why. I think the regression analysis lines are more important. This is a weekly chart of the SPY and the green lines are just hand drawn by me by examination, starting the higher major low below the ultimate low and keeping the lines parallel. Using an actual regressional analysis tool, you get the same results as shown below the first drawing but did draw in the green line on the bottom and draw one in on top as it seems that my regression tool doesn't quite get the real important lower and higher trendlines. It really shows the outer possible limits for price moves with prices often getting to the outer limits especially on the upside. The bollinger bands do a much better job or predicting price reversals after 3 hits or so of the lower bollinger prices have reversed. The 200 wk moving average has also worked several times as well, that's the blue dashed line in charts. Support generally holds twice and fails on a third strike. If it's wrong, that's what stops are all about. I also have a theory that if say the lower trendline is hit, that the next correction won't retest it but will stop a third higher and then the next correction may retest. It seems to alternate. I see this more in stocks than in indexes. The best indicator of all is just riding the 5 wk moving average and staying in tune with it's slope at all times. No predictions are necessary and profits are dependent on the slope not changing direction enough. A simple formula can count up in hindsight the historical number of slope direction changes and as long as that number is sufficiently low, it's a winning strategy.