To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (4904 ) 12/1/1997 9:26:00 PM From: Brian Lempel Respond to of 8002
Randy, I still think CREAF has a ways to go. Profits in the past 2 years have been fueled by higher margins. This quarter should be huge with respect to all their products. Yields, which continue to improve with time should do just that (no new product in production yet). They will also continue to benefit from devalued Asian currency in the way of lower production costs, although that will be partially offset by lower revenue from Asian countries. This is also the first quarter that they will really benefit, IMO, from volume production of their PC-DVD, which is in hot demand (surprisingly). I think I was lucky to get such a good entry on CREAF on today's pullback. Should recover quickly to $28, and probably make new highs around 31-32. The future looks even better, as they ramp up DVD- ROM/RAM, new generation of audio chips, and their immensely popular speakers. As far as GTW, I think people will be surprised by their quarter. However, I also feel that the stock won't move up until they report a decent quarter. Right now, DELL and CPQ are really outperforming them. Into the next 3 weeks, there will probably be several rumors about pre-announcements. Whether they end up being true or not, they will obviously cause a hit. And on top of that, strong resistance is in place at $31-31.5 and is continuously moving down. So, while I think CREAF is a better investment for the moment, I am still looking to re-establish a position in GTW. I think the stock will go lower before it goes higher. I will pick up some shares in January if there is no pre-announcement and the trend is either broken or the stock is so far below it that profits can be made without it being broken. Brian