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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (125338)	10/27/2012 4:03:38 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

If a poll shows Obama winning but at the same time losing Independents by large margin, the poll is highly suspicious, in my mind. Obama is losing independents by 10% in that IBD poll. And he is still winning by 2%. That points to significant oversampling of Democrats. The poll does not spell out the D/R breakdown. Obama won Independents by 8% in 2008, and now is losing them by 10%. That's an 18% swing away from Obama by the Independents. Assuming the Democrats are as enthusiastic as in 2008, and Republicans as depressed as in 2008, the move in independents alone signals that Obama is in trouble, even in a poll that on surface favors him.