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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (96030)10/28/2012 8:53:22 PM
From: Zincman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218715
 
Your thoughts on AU should Romney win.

tia

ZM



To: TobagoJack who wrote (96030)10/28/2012 9:42:43 PM
From: Paxb2u1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218715
 
But Obama's puppet master is probably more evil than Romney-----Peace



To: TobagoJack who wrote (96030)10/29/2012 1:07:28 AM
From: energyplay5 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218715
 
By the way, you were right about Obama being a wastrel. ...

You had me seriously worried that Romney was really evil.

He's a politician, and smarter than Obama.
He might be able to make good on a large number of promises for several reasons...

1. The Deus ex Machina that is helping the U.S. economy, more oil and natural gas production from from fracking, shale gas, the Bakken (North Dakota), and the Eagle Ford (Texas). At $85 a barrel, everybody is making money on the oil side. The U.S. is still buying about 6 million barrels a day from countries other than Canada and Mexico, and at $100 that's over $200 Billion a year - one reason the Gulf States can build the world's tallest building. (Burj Dubai)

There is a lot of Federal and State land that can be opened up.

Oil generates lots of taxes in various ways.
Most of these decisions are executive branch and don't need Congress.
(note that this exports U.S. economic pain to other oil producers, like Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.)

2. The EPA under Obama has been slowing all sorts of business, not just energy. They are so bad that there is probably about 0.75 % of GDP growth that is stalled. Romney can reverse some of that, and the U.S. will get about an extra 0.5% GDP growth spread over two years or so. The EPA really has been a "job killing machine" as some Republicans have said.

3. The last 4 years of the George W. Bush administration were preoccupied with the war and then economic crisis. There are some neglected areas, like trade agreements, that can help the U.S.

4. Our friend Ben Bernanke has been pumping like crazy, trying to get inflation and the economy going. He will win eventually. This will bring the value of the U.S. dollar down, encouraging more U.S. exports.
(Note that this will export U.S. economic pain to Europe and parts of Asia)

Net result will be both more growth and inflation, leading to higher tax revenues, cutting the deficit a lot.

Military spending will be cut in 2014, especially bases in parts of Western Europe.
It is likely some farm subsidies, like ethanol, will be trimmed.
Much of the "green energy" waste will be cut down.

So there may be enough growth that some of the politically painful decisions can have reduced pain, and still get the deficit down to something that can work long term.

>> Which means the price of gold seven years from now might be $4000 under Romney, instead of $9000 under Obama- but the Romney dollars will be worth more, so the difference will not be so large.