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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Platter who wrote (4151)	12/1/1997 9:48:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Respond to of 95453

Yeah,yeah,yeah.I hate to be this sour and nothing against you but I have been pulverized along with everyone else.That nutmeg in Iraq wants to sell more oil so he's showing pictures of dead children that he killed to get the U.S. to cooperate and we will cause we don't want to look like murderers.We're about to be down for the count and we'll get up sometime but I think we're going to get smashed this week.If you think the selling has been bad then just wait,your head is going to turn inside out.GD

To: Platter who wrote (4151)	12/1/1997 10:02:00 PM
From: Zeus549	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Bry, I think you are absolutely right. Do just about the opposite of what they say to do at tops and bottoms and you will do just fine. I am betting right now that the scenario you layed out is going to take place. It's time to be buying these no good laggards not selling. I just can't wait to hear what the "excuse of the day" will be for them to get back into the oil services stocks, but they will come up with something , you can bet on it just as sure as the sun rises.

To: Platter who wrote (4151)	12/1/1997 10:10:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Bry, your view on the chartists and their strategy needs to be further articulated. The computer generated buy/sell signal you cited are as brainless as a computer. We have been through the Vector Vest stupidity before. You need to better specify your bottom to top buy to sell timeframe for the drillers. Don't redicule the charts. We have got to realize the fundamental conditions when charts work best and conditions when charts don't do squat. Right now TA doesn't do squat because the selling pressure is too great. We are not dealing with trading range buy/sell here right now. The opposite occured 1 1/2 months ago when TA failed when momentum money kept buying higher highs. Your strategy will make you catch a falling knife and sell way too soon in this sector IMO. There is no guarantee the drillers will come roaring back before they tumble another 10%. So if you buy now and the drillers take another 10% dive by next week, what would you do? A lot of us thought the bottom was reached 1-2 weeks ago but now here we are. In this situation it is much better to keep cash and buy in after the turnaround has occured. The price may be 10% higher after the turnaround has occured (yes one can characterize a turnaround by all sorts of technical indicators) but one would sleep better and definitely be more confident of having made a sounder decision at that point. I relied on the charts to beat the drillers (by a large margin) this year for the record. The saving grace is TA gave me the sell signal early on before the big dive occured. My charts told me to sell off all the drillers when the turnaround from the top occured 1 1/2 months ago and 10 months ago in January when we also had a similar beating. My problem is taking up positions too early (last 1-2 weeks) but have since raised some cash again because I realized my mistake. By backtesting your strategy on the drillers using the past 12 months data, one would have sold too early. Don't redicule the charts, use it as a tool but don't bet your farms on it.

To: Platter who wrote (4151)	12/2/1997 10:23:00 AM
From: Platter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Sector rotation will begin on this sector next week...."It seems we are in the pits now, but don't forget SECTOR rotation by those big funds ...they are gonna run up the TECHS, FIN, HEALTH etc for the next couple of weeks, and Lo and behold, suddenly bail out at the top and move into those oversold sectors (and guess which one that will be) completely ignoring whatever happens in Iraq, Opec...they (the anaylst will have to come up with a sudden excuse to upgrade)...I am speaking from experince I had with brokers and my own knowlege of what gones on in the board rooms....while the little guy works up himself into depression ...they would be dumping those stocks that are running up this week and ploughing the money into the beaten up stocks. The secret though is that they won't come out with the buys until a couple weeks from now ie after they have already made their purchases. Thats why I have spent the last 4 yrs doing the opposite of what they what me to do....Oh yes they were encouraging peolpe to buy CDG @ 80.00, PTEN @64.00 and so on only a few weeks ago when they were selling.....The smart investors were selling short then and the inexperienced ones were buying..now the opposite is happening....go read the thread those who were buying at the top are now selling and are afraid to buy, because the "brokers say so".... And who do you think was selling today and who do you think was buying?....FOOLS PARADISE!!!!When will they learn"