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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HH who wrote (58117)	10/31/2012 2:48:31 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Respond to of 71588

One would hope that Holder would continue to be prosecuted for his role in Fast and Furious after Romney becomes President. Holder needs to go to prison. The fact that Obama lied and withheld support from Americans in danger will probably be moot after he is removed from office. We can hope the whole truth comes to light before being dropped.

To: HH who wrote (58117)	10/31/2012 5:22:09 PM
From: Peter Dierks	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71588

Mitt Romney leads in three swing states by unskewed data from Quinnipiac polls By: Dean Chambers October 31, 2012 Three state level polls of likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Virginia released today by CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac are heavily skewed and show President Obama leading over Mitt Romney. The polls shows Obama leading by one percent in Florida, five percent in Ohio and two percent in Virginia. Other recent surveys, that have been far less skewed, have shown Romney leading in all three of the states, including a recent Rasmussen survey showing Romney leading 50 percent to 48 percent in Ohio. Obama's approval to disapproval ratings in these polls, despite the level they are skewed, are 49 percent to 48 in Florida, 50 percent to 47 percent in Ohio and 49 percent to 49 percent in Virginia. Generally, an incumbent president needs at least 51 percent approval to win a state, and President Obama is below that level in all three of these states. Those who disapprove of an incumbent president are highly likely to vote for the challenger. These numbers show that Obama is highly unlikely to win these states. The CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac survey of Florida shows Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent. Democrats are supporting Obama by a 89 percent to eight percent margin while Republicans likewise support Romney by a 93 percent to six percent margin. Independent voters are narrowly favoring Romney, 49 percent to 44 percent. This survey was based on polling 1073 likely voters and included 30 percent Republicans, 37 percent Democrats and 29 percent independent voters. This survey is skewed in favor of Democrats by about five percent. When unskewed, the data from this survey indicates a Romney lead of 49.23 percent to 47.35 percent. That means by skewing this poll by five percent in favor of Democrats, a two percent lead for Romney (which is consistent with others surveys) is turned into a one percent Obama lead. The CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac numbers for Ohio are Obama 50 percent to Romney at 45 percent. The president enjoys 92 percent to six percent support margin among Democrats while Republicans favor Romney 91 percent to seven percent in Ohio. The state's independent voters are reported at 49 percent for Romney and 43 percent for Obama. This survey was based on polling 1110 likely voters and included 29 percent Republicans, 37 percent Democrats and 30 percent independent voters. This survey is skewed in favor of Democrats by about eight percent. When unskewed, the data from this survey indicates a Romney lead of 48.64 percent to 47.68 percent. That means by skewing this poll by five percent in favor of Democrats, a one percent lead for Romney (which is consistent with others surveys) is turned into a five percent Obama lead. Obama leads 49 percent to 47 percent in the Virginia polling numbers from the CBS News/NYT/Quinnipiac survey. Democrats are support the president 96 percent to three percent while Republicans favor Romney 93 percent to six percent. Romney is winning a large 57 percent to 36 percent margin among independent voters. This survey was based on polling 1074 likely voters and included 27 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 35 percent independent voters. This survey is skewed in favor of Democrats by about 10 percent. When unskewed, the data from this survey indicates a Romney lead of 51.42 percent to 45.90 percent. That means by skewing this poll by five percent in favor of Democrats, a five percent lead for Romney (which is consistent with others surveys) is turned into a two percent Obama lead. That is three state-level polls skewed to show small Obama leads and unskewed, the same data reveals a more likely and plausible Romney lead that is very consistent with other more credible and less skewed polls conducted in those states. This fit the pattern of the national CBS News polls of the presidential race released today, which is skewed to show a one percent (48 percent to 47 percent) lead for President Obama while the unskewed data from that survey reveals a 49 percent to 47 percent lead for Mitt Romney. These polls are not the only ones recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to create results favorable to Barack Obama. Earlier this year, the September CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted. ce be heard, take the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll, just a few quick questions, and the full QStarNews Poll with many interesting questions. examiner.com