To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (147773 ) 11/1/2012 4:30:56 PM From: longnshort 2 Recommendations Respond to of 224750 Virginia early-voting tallies suggest large turnout edge for Romney Posted at 10:40 am on November 1, 2012 by Twitchy Staff | View Comments Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace: docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc… 1 Nov 12 Reply Retweet Favorite Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008: Jamie Dupree?@jamiedupree [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=jamiedupree&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] New Q poll in Virginia that shows Obama up two points uses turnout model of D+8; Virginia in 2008 was D+6 31 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite TheRightWing@teapartiedUSA [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=teapartiedUSA&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] WaPo Virginia poll with Obama up 4 is D+8 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04). So yes, if Dems can outdo their 2008 WAVE election in turnout, O wins 27 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday , shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections: Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties: Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%These d Virginia early-voting tallies suggest large turnout edge for Romney Posted at 10:40 am on November 1, 2012 by Twitchy Staff | View Comments Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace: docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc… 1 Nov 12 Reply Retweet Favorite Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008: Jamie Dupree?@jamiedupree [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=jamiedupree&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] New Q poll in Virginia that shows Obama up two points uses turnout model of D+8; Virginia in 2008 was D+6 31 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite TheRightWing@teapartiedUSA [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=teapartiedUSA&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] WaPo Virginia poll with Obama up 4 is D+8 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04). So yes, if Dems can outdo their 2008 WAVE election in turnout, O wins 27 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday , shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections: Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties: Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%These data are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters. Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08) 1 Nov 12 Reply Retweet Favorite Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm... ata are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters. Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08) 1 Nov 12 Reply Retweet Favorite Dave Wasserman@Redistrict [iframe class="twt-follow-button" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html#align=right&button=grey&screen_name=Redistrict&show_count=false&show_screen_name=false&lang=en" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; width: 150px !important; height: 20px !important; position: absolute !important; top: 1px !important; right: 0px !important; bottom: auto !important; left: auto !important; z-index: auto !important; float: none !important; min-width: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; margin: 0px !important; overflow: visible !important; clip: auto !important; clear: none !important; line-height: 16px !important; word-spacing: normal !important; text-overflow: clip !important; text-shadow: none !important; word-wrap: normal !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; list-style: none !important; cursor: auto !important; background-color: transparent !important; border-width: 0px !important; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; quotes: none !important; outline: 0px !important; opacity: 1 !important; visibility: visible !important; size: auto !important; -webkit-box-shadow: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; direction: ltr !important; page: auto !important; "][/iframe] VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm...