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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (206709)	11/2/2012 9:34:23 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 542904

Well, I don't think anything clinches anything in this race. It will really depend on who turns out.

To: KyrosL who wrote (206709)	11/2/2012 9:50:53 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 542904

Well, we'll see is right and who is wrong next Wed (if, that is, Ohio's provisional votes aren't the deciding factor in that race, which they may end up being!). "The new Quinnipiac Ohio poll was made up by 37% of Democrats, 30% independents and 29% Republicans." I have to admit that that seems like a big spread between Ds and Rs to me too, but who knows, maybe it's right. Five percent gives some leeway to be wrong. Mitt pollster: Q poll 'crap' By JONATHAN MARTIN \| 10/31/12 7:20 PM EDT politico.com Mitt Romney’s pollster lashed out Wednesday at a new Ohio poll showing President Obama up five in the state, calling the survey “a piece of crap.” Neil Newhouse, in a conversation with Washington supporters, was harshly critical of a Quinnipiac-New York Times-CBS survey that has raised concerns among Republicans about whether Romney can win the crucial state, according to a source familiar with the conversation. The poll, which was released Wednesday morning, shows Obama taking 50 percent of the vote to Romney’s 45 in battleground Ohio. Newhouse’s complained that the poll’s model projected both a broader pool of Ohioans as likely voters than is realistic and was based on a partisan composition of the electorate that was far more favorable to Democrats than he thinks is plausible. In an afternoon call with reporters, Newhouse made a similar case. But in his discussion earlier in the day with the GOP insiders, Newhouse made clear his frustration with the drumbeat of polling that have showed Obama enjoying a narrow advantage in such key states as Ohio. The pollster complained broadly about each day bringing another unfavorable public survey. Romney’s campaign and others in the GOP believe the samples in the media polls show a partisan breakdown that is overly favorable to Democrats and is therefore misrepresenting the electorate. Most pollsters don’t weight by party, but rather attempt to gauge partisan identification along with other preferences. The new Quinnipiac Ohio poll was made up by 37% of Democrats, 30% independents and 29% Republicans. That’s comparable to what exit polls showed as the composition of the Ohio electorate in 2008. Asked about his comments, Newhouse pointed out the high numbers of registered voters Quinnipiac includes in their data. “96 percent of their registered voter sample are ‘likely voters,’” wrote Newhouse. “That's absurd” As for his description of the poll as “crap,” Newhouse said: “I don't recall saying those words.” Peter Brown, who conducts Quinnipiac’s poll, declined to respond to Newhouse’s criticism. “We stand by our numbers,” Brown said. It’s not just Quinnipiac’s Ohio poll, though. A slew of state surveys showing Obama narrowly ahead or effectively tied in Ohio, Virginia, Florida and beyond has put a damper on GOP efforts to talk up Romney’s momentum in the campaign’s final days. Another Romney official present for the conversation urged the Romney backers to point out to others what they believe are the methodological problems with the surveys. In states where there have not been ads, however, polls show Romney drawing closer to the president. This has prompted the Republican’s campaign to go up a significant ad buy in Pennsylvania and, to a lesser degree, in Minnesota. But in the conversation with Washington supporters Wednesday, Romney political director Rich Beeson made clear that they only making a foray into Pennsylvania after the rest of their swing state ads and field programs were funded. Explaining why they thought it was worth testing the waters in Pennsylvania, Beeson explained that 96% of the Keystone States voters would cast ballots on Election Day, meaning that, unlike states with early voting, they could be susceptible to a late push. On New Mexico, where Romney’s super PAC has started airing ads, Beeson noted that there has been little presidential action on the airwaves but conceded the state was even more of a stretch than Pennsylvania.