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To: ftth who wrote (41815)	11/3/2012 8:50:19 AM
From: axial	Respond to of 46821

Japan has probably replaced Germany as the global showcase for energy transition. Fukushima, with consequent public resistance to more nuclear power generation, has nudged the nation into the forefront of renewable generation and energy efficiency. However, as with the US and many other countries whether the gap can be bridged without more nuclear power is questionable. japantimes.co.jp -- or can be downloaded as .pdf from the linked page. --- Russia's approach to the problem is heavily tilted to nuclear, including floating nuclear plants. Expanded hydroelectric generation is also planned. world-nuclear.org --- For years it has been posted that current estimates for economically recoverable domestic reserves are overstated, depletion rates and consequences of expanded natural gas use miscalculated. The latter 2 factors create a linked relationship. Forecasters are still divided but awareness is creeping in. Finally, at least some analysts are deflating unrealistic expectations. ' A request by Reuters for forecasts of 2020 prices drew 20 responses from consultants, banks and energy analysts. The poll produced a mean average of $118 a barrel for North Sea Brent, suggesting little change from the current level around $110. But only five of the 20 are actually predicting prices anywhere near the mean average. The real story is in the division between the two camps. Setting aside the demand side of the debate, the argument about supply is simple. One camp argues that the upside from shale oil supplies will be more than enough to meet demand growth. The other disputes that, saying the likely impact from shale is being exaggerated. ' Analysis: Does U.S. shale mean cheap global oil by 2020? reuters.com Jim