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Pastimes : The Big Picture - Economics and Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mozek who wrote (474)	12/2/1997 12:50:00 AM
From: Staff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 686

yeah! What bonds would you like to buy rather than gold anyway South Korea Brazil Thailand Indonesia Mexico Hong Kong Japan or what the hey..all the above... lets get diversified....look for major bounces because there is no top... only dips to buy bargains.... buy every dip because its the 90's and you can book it. Big gains .. no risK. Here is what the smart money has to be thinking right.... ..lets play it smart .... Lets go with the #1 most indebted country in the entire world with our big dough!!! yeah!!!!... That sounds like a smart deal right? Trade deficits... budget deficits.... yeah... sounds like its better deal than old gold ... what a concept... After all.. everyone knows gold was only accepted in every sountry since the dawn of time for legal tender but today we are in a new world.. things are different know... papaer is king and gold is dead! But that paper... wow! its like worth the paper its printed on... cool pictures and the entire show.... I mean heck our dollar is backed by Clintons and Rubins promise to pay you back. They would never go...opps... guess we can only pay off 80%or 50% .. sorry...we are the goverment and we made a mistake... sorry... .. you have the right to sue us but then ... we are the system... good luck and may the force be with you!! Wouldn't you rather have that promise more than a double eagle in hand? Sounds like you think its a swell deal... guess the market does to... good luck and may the papaer gods be with you when the worm turns... heres the deal.. it's simple and it works... its the 90'[s and this is the game.. Go with the heard...there is not top...the trend is your freind and everything is going to never stop... there is no top... bull markets are history baby!!!! things are different know... nothing can stop anything anymore... buy it and it goes higher... 15% returns for life with no risk... just keep buying... get the fever baby!!! Yeah yeah yeah grins grins grins... what a country.... borrow and buy and don't ask why is the moto of the 90's ya ha!!!!! Go for it!!!! Me...I'm Mr. sucker on the sidelines... even a little short and getting shorter... what a fool An I the only seller today on the close?... what the hey... somebody has to be the idiot... may as well be me.. I just know I will look back and say gee i sopld the dow over 8000... what an idiot I was!!!!

To: mozek who wrote (474)	12/2/1997 2:47:00 AM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 686

Michael, Just a couple of short comments first, more later when I get out from my "deadlines". China and Taiwan aren't exactly in the same situation as South Korea. The former had quietly navigated through several devaluations throughout the years and, in the opinions of many, China IS the reason for some of the current problems of the Asian tigers--an emerging competitive threat necessitating a realignment of the economic order in that part of the world. As to Taiwan, it still has an enviable warchest of national reserve (75% in US dollars, last I heard). Devaluations (from NT$25 to US$1 to the present 32:1) occuring in the past 2-3 years should cusion against any severe impact. Japan is near the trough whereas S. Korea will begin to experience a national sacrifice if IMF is extending a rescuing hand--hard medicine much like what Mexico had a couple of years ago. The following is from the famed economist Ed. Yardeni: __________________________________________________________________ COMMENT: The "Asian Relief Rally" is likely to push stock prices into record territory by the start of the new year. The Dow should peak around the middle of next year around 9500, plus/minus 500. Then I think it could move back down below 8000 through the end of 1999. The 30-year government bond yield is likely to drop below 6% soon. The drop in the price of gold below $300 is a harbinger of much weaker commodity prices next year. It also suggests that the US producer price index is likely to show negative year-over-year comparisons during at least the first half of 1998, i.e., deflation. ____________ Ibexx