To: Chi-Chi who wrote (4242 ) 12/2/1997 3:23:00 PM From: HAZ Respond to of 24930
Chi-Chi I agree with you wholeheartedly, stock prices will go up and they will go down and if we only pay attention when they are going up then we will miss the real buying opportunities when they go down. Actually, my first investment in any stock that I purchase is to test the waters and get on the information bandwagon. I've made more money buying stocks at their lows and waiting for the turn around then buying on the way up when stocks are flying. I guess that's just the skeptic in me. I believe that we are being presented with a buying opportunity right now (in the oil patch anyway), this sector has taken a beaten badly in a very short period of time and that is highly unusual. Everything went negative all at once ; 1 - oil prices continued to drop 2 - warmer that expected winter which has caused a delay in the winter freeze up and drilling & production tie ins. 3 - lower gas prices in Alberta 4 - pending greenhouse emissions regulations 5 - threat of lower consumption and lower economic activity in far east 6 - 30 % drop in most O&G stock prices My answers to most of these negatives are 1 - North Americans are guzzling Gasoline with their big trucks and 4X4's, do you know how much gas a Ford Expedition or Explorer, or GMC suburban (to be fair to Ford) eat. You can see dollars signs in you rearview mirror in the exhaust. 2 - Although I believe that El Nino will have an effect on weather patterns and may be responsible for lowering our average temp's by .5 to 1 degrees, old man winter is not dead and rest assured he'll be here, he's just taking the scenic route. 3 - Gas prices in the US are still trading at US 2.70 and by late 1998 export capacity to the US will rise by some rather large number and companies that can manage to sign up on the pipeline will do exceptionally well. 4 - yes we should all be more concerned with our environment and I believe that everyone, not just O&G companies should be more responsible, how much garbage do you put on the curb every week ? Technology , tax breaks and government subsidies will help cushion the financial cost for some of this clean up. 5 - Don't you worry about the far east, they might be wounded by not seriously and they will recover in short order. 6 - For the regulars on this thread, it was just a couple of months ago that you extrapolating the virtues of TLM at 57, PCA at 31, GOU at 13.85, CYX at 37, etc.... nothing has changed in these companies. They can adjust to all of the above influencing factors in numerous ways and they will and be better for it. Hell, If I had any brains I wouldn't invest with all those negatives either but my contraian emotions tell me to buy now, so I'm buying selected stocks. Someone very famous once said "the market will always come back, you just don't know when " Let's hope it's now. Cheers and good investing