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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (683632)	11/7/2012 1:48:54 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573930

>> NATE SILVER NAILED IT, WHILE RUSH, NOONAN WERE WAY OFF I wanted to Silver to crash and burn, and there is always next time. As Nate Silver himself said last week, "If I'm right I'll get way too much credit, and if I'm wrong, I'll get way too much blame." There is no way to confirm that he "nailed it" -- after all, the election was about a 50/50 shot from the outset. Were the odds of Obama winning 90% two days ago? Who the hell knows. All we know, statistically, is that Silver predicted he would win a 50/50 shot and he did. His winning prognostication neither proves nor disproves anything. But he'll be the media's golden boy until he blows it. The Joe Granville of politics.

To: bentway who wrote (683632)	11/7/2012 2:37:19 PM
From: combjelly	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573930

I think the basic problem is that they prize gut feeling over analysis. Maybe God talks to them. Who knows? They certainly hung onto the meme that Obama's base was dispirited and discouraged. There certainly were times where it was true. But it definitely was not true towards the end. But, they had convinced themselves of that, after all they had unskewed the polls, and were unwilling to refactor. Plus, they have a tendency towards hyperbole, remember the "not intended to be a factual statement"? He was trying to dramatize his point. But he wound of looking stupid... Or Mittens when he attacked Obama about not labeling the attack at Benghazi terrorism. Apparently his people only read the first paragraph of that Bloomberg article on Jeep restarting production in China.And so on, it is a rather long list. When challenged, they twist and turn, split hairs, come up with novel word definitions, start chopping logic, ad hom. attacks, shift the topic, obfuscate the issue or, and Romney has raised this to a high art, change their position and try to claim they were there the whole time. Because the whole point is to win, not to be right. And everything goes because the winner gets to write the history...