To: Seth L. who wrote (22457 ) 12/2/1997 10:29:00 AM From: Stephen B. Temple Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41046
Here's a great column on why a few companies will lose out if ATM becomes a mainstay as it is showing. With many key standards nearing completion and vendors about to deliver second- or third-generation product, now is a good time to appraise the players in the market for LAN ATM. Although Fore Systems Inc. has led the LAN ATM market for a few years, many analysts have predicted a lesser role, "once the big boys step in." But the large networking companies such as Cisco Systems Inc., Bay Networks Inc., and 3Com Corp. are so locked into their respective points of view that they remain unable to fully exploit ATM's opportunities. Remember when IBM ruled the networking world with SNA? Cisco, then a young upstart, began displacing IBM 3745 front-end processors with routers. Customers discovered they could get better performance for fewer dollars: a winning combination. Thus, a massive shift from host-based networks to router-based architectures occurred. The same phenomenon will occur again, except that Cisco and the others will be on the losing end of the paradigm shift. As soon as the masses discover that ATM switches deliver 10 times the performance of routers, the argument will be over. Architecturally, this means a fundamental migration away from routers to switch-based networks, and Fore may well occupy the enviable position that Cisco once held. Cisco, Bay, 3Com, and others still view ATM as primarily a link or subnet technology, over which traditional protocols such as TCP/IP can be run. But ATM is much more than that. ****ATM has the right stuff to displace TCP/IP as the open, universal protocol of choice over the long run.**** Fore is one of the few players that understands this. Within five years it should be grossing $1 billion to $2 billion in annual revenue. The recent win of a large federal contract ensures that Fore will be the first to market with a commercially viable terabit ATM switch. As we know, the demo was an inter LATA voice call over an OC-24 ATM backbone 75 miles north-east of Houston. SwitchesRule! 53CellTemp'