Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (96483)	11/10/2012 11:39:40 PM
From: elmatador	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219716

When a complex entity has everything that enable us to forecast one outcome and that outcome does not happen we need to look to two things: 1) We are plain wrong. 2) There is a key element that we did not look at. Brazil was the country of the future. And the future never arrived. The key element missing was: the country needed to enter its demographic window. EZ, the open market and the Euro the key element people missed was: it was just a publicity campaign. Once people stopped believing the propaganda, the truth appeared. US, the missing element people are not looking at is: as long as the USD is the world's reserve currency and can move volumes of money, that enables the country to throw money at anything that appears to destabilize it, it can go on.

To: energyplay who wrote (96483)	11/18/2012 10:05:56 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219716

Do you remember when the lack of programmers would delay the computer industry. (wasn't called IT then) DO you remember when the telephony industry, if continued growing at the pace it was growing, the whole population of the US would be employed as switch board operators? High-tech companies face a shortfall of some 40m skilled workers by 2020, with businesses based in China likely to be among the worst hit, according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute. The institute – a research arm of the McKinsey strategy consultancy – says that manufacturing will be the sector of the global economy that will be most severely affected. The impact of the skills shortages in such industries is likely to worsen in the next few years, due to the failure by academic institutions to train enough people to high enough standards to keep pace with demand, said James Manyika, a director of the institute. ELMAT: It must be a very young team of researchers that came with this report “The extent of the skills deficit will be a huge constraint on the ability of many companies to develop their businesses in the way they want,” said Mr Manyika. In the McKinsey study, a high-skilled person is defined as someone who has gained a university degree or equivalent qualification – irrespective of discipline Skilled workers shortfall of 40m forecast By Peter Marsh in London The specific difficulties that McKinsey foresees for China indicates that the country – which took over from the US last year as the world’s biggest manufacturing country by output – may have trouble continuing its fast rate of expansion in this sector. Parts of manufacturing likely to suffer the most through the recruitment difficulties include the motor, medical equipment and aerospace sectors. The impact of the skills shortages in such industries is likely to worsen in the next few years, due to the failure by academic institutions to train enough people to high enough standards to keep pace with demand, said James Manyika, a director of the institute. ELMAT: Uhm, it is looking like a marketing for universities of Europe and the US. Parents reading this will see as an opportunity, take their savings and invest in technical education. “The extent of the skills deficit will be a huge constraint on the ability of many companies to develop their businesses in the way they want,” said Mr Manyika. In the McKinsey study, a high-skilled person is defined as someone who has gained a university degree or equivalent qualification – irrespective of discipline. However, the areas of expertise where employers are experiencing the worst problems in recruitment are in technical subjects highly relevant to manufacturing and other technology-based sectors including mining, hospital services and engineering design. Among large companies that have recently acknowledged they face difficulties recruiting sufficient people in fields such as engineering are the US industrial groups Boeing, Caterpillar and Honeywell and Rolls-Royce, the UK aero-engine supplier. Of the 40m of unfilled vacancies for skilled workers that are projected by McKinsey to be evident by 2020, an estimated 13m are likely to be in manufacturing businesses, with the rest split up between a large number of other parts of the world economy. According to the McKinsey consultants, China is likely to be the single country that suffers the most through a shortage of skilled workers. By 2020, China will have an excess of demand for these people of some 22m. The remaining 18m shortfall will have an impact largely in the advanced industrialised regions – mainly western Europe, the US and Japan – according to the study’s authors. McKinsey reckons that China’s specific problems stem from the economy growing so quickly that – in spite of the large numbers of people with high educational qualifications coming out of universities and colleges – the output of these men and women is unable to keep up with expanding requirements. By 2020, according to McKinsey, businesses based in China will require a total of 140m people with high skills – some 22m fewer than the numbers with the appropriate qualifications who will be available for these jobs. This is in spite of the expectation that Chinese universities and equivalent academic institutions will produce some 5m graduates a year over the next few years in all disciplines. “China is putting a lot of resources into education. But even so this is not enough to meet the requirements of an economy that, even if it has slowed down somewhat, is still expanding extremely fast [at 7-8 per cent a year] by the standards of most countries,” Mr Manyika said. Another difficulty for China stems from the changing balance of its population, with the ratio of old to young people growing rapidly. As a result, the numbers of people in their 20s entering the workforce – and potentially with high levels of education – are likely to be relatively small over the next few years relative to the country’s population.