Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (8072)	12/2/1997 1:23:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

OSO no doubt about it the SDRAM shortage will have an effect on a number of semis. Not so convinced on the impact on LSI - remember we want to avoid any link of LSI to memory! (remember the MU share price link of last year!!!) Also I do not know what the life-cycle and (S-curve characteristics) of the SDRAM ramp is going to be. I try to avoid the DRAM manufacturers - too highly leveraged and very difficult to predict changes in inventory. Of course this same leverage and any uptick in demand means small fortunes to those who can time it right. Did not hear Kurlak's comments. My take on this is that there is some inventory issue coming down the pipeline and suspect it is in your favorite area - communications. This is incidentally the biggest area re: SEA consumption of chips. (And before I get killed I did mention that the SEA thing would have an effect on communications chips!) Also suspect LSI drop had something to do with CABLETRON dropping like a bomb. Still the entire sector is getting whacked. Such as ALTR. Not sure of ALTR's connection to the communications area but it might be pretty big. So in a phrase I suspect from the types of stocks getting hit (such as VLSI and Ericsson downgrade awhile back) the problem is - COMMUNICATIONS INVENTORY ... not the usual PC slowdown - though if the SEA thing gets way way out of hand that might happen 3-6 months down the road :-) --- BTW let's see chip inventories high last year, then networking early this year and continued (issue slightly different), then disk-drives, now communications. So what's left PCs - oh well we'll take care of that next ... Hey how sentiment has changed in the bat of an eyelid. Thank you Mr. Edelstone for ALTR and Mr. Kurlak for eveyone else. BTW I know people abuse Kurlak for his seemingly waffling positions - but he does emphasize one point (which I've mentioned numerous times here) that the key to investing in cyclical stocks is an understanding of INVENTORY cylces(& LEAD times). [What Kurlak adds is "investor pyschology cycles" :-)))] Also because distributors and customers don't hold much inventory anymore it's not therefore easy to predict the impact on chip companies. We'll have to see how LSI does. But like I said a few weeks ago I really do not expect LSI to post a good Q1'98 and with that in mind I'm suspicious of upticks in the stock price. $24 is fair price. 20% discount seems an acceptable sector/company risk to me. !!ELO All while listening to some cool jazz so I'm not bothered ... And BTW Sheryl Crow rules .... :-)