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To: Bernie Diamond who wrote (3394)12/2/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: Bubba  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
PW analyst comments - these are about third hand, but I think are fairly accurate.

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Held Q4 sub growth at 340,000
Held Pos Cash Flow to Q3 1998

Sub Growth probably much higher in 1H 1998

1)New "Galaxy" rolls out, (6 oz. phone, most closely related to MicroTac Elite). "Eagle", StarTac type phone looks like Q2 1998.

2) Indirect channels expand - initial trials w/ HD, SPLS & OMX look good and are expanding. These could come on full force as indirect channels significantly increasing

3) Real promotion activity held to Jan 1998 to promote Galaxy, not really doing much promotion in Nov/Dec period.

Cash Flow - 1H increased sub growth means Q2 EBITDA positive tougher as cap ex increases. This is a good problem but pushes date to Q3 1998.

Increased cap ex estimate from 800mm to 1.0 bil for 1998. Apparently customers want greater coverage. Not sure about this one. Increased coverage probably causes incremental growth, but maybe not as powerful as some other types of cap ex such as new market expansion. Theory is you would get that customer anyway so increased coverage adds some minutes of use but does not cause most people to turn a "not buy" into a "buy". This is all very hard to gauge as you have to have a real feel for the incremental revenues from the different types of cap ex and the associated margins on those revenues. None of it seems negative to me just varying degrees of positive.

I continue to think the increased cap ex has some players nervous as it is basically "if you build it they will come" type of bet. All of us in Arnie's Army believe but some others may still chose to wait before enlisting.

OVER THE RAMPARTS!

Sergeant Bub



To: Bernie Diamond who wrote (3394)12/2/1997 8:18:00 PM
From: Al Gutkin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Bernie: The pop was meaningless, odd order filled or computer glitch.

I have been watching NXTL almost every minute today. Since I am glued to the screen on slow business days, I see the odd stuff go through. I think that it is either a computer glitch or a shortfall between demand and supply which triggers a stop order out of sequence. In any case, lets look to the bright side and tomorrow the 28 level will be hit on a consistant basis.

Regards:

hit and miss, Al