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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50157)	11/25/2012 2:53:20 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78732

OT: Roth/IRA conversions ....risk that ROTH conversion will not be beneficial for you, unless you expect to be in top margin when you withdraw money too Before I acted I did run some possibilities through several on-line programs, and I concluded the conversion would work for me. One such program: individual.troweprice.com IMHO, there is never any guarantee that the fallen stocks will perform better than non-fallen stocks. If it was true, you should always sell the non-fallen stocks and buy the fallen ones. IMHO, you're just following a fallacy. Yes, no guarantee. But could it be a probability statement? Given the variables involved though -- sample size, position size, stock category, current market factor, volatility, holding period factor -- I'd say a wide confidence band would have to surround any probability statement. However as I see just roughly in my case, at this moment I'm green on 10 (maybe more/not sure) of 20 original stocks in my 2011 Roth (green on 16 of 26 total positions) and green on 13 of 23 in my 2012 Roth. The stocks weren't equally $-weighted when they went into the Roth, and I can report that both Roths as of today are green, and I'm satisfied (at this moment anyway) with my decision to transfer into Roths. Since these were mostly, or all, already fallen/cheap stocks when I initially bought them as value stocks in my ira, my opinion is that that they are or could be even better bargains given the even lower prices that they've become at the point when I've transferred them from the ira into my Roth.