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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (13389)	11/26/2012 11:50:05 PM
From: Hawkmoon	6 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Here's a potentially good reason for why John's prediction may come to pass: blogs.barrons.com Let's remember that Bank earnings are also heavily dependent upon cheap money from the Fed, and JPM, WFC, GS, C, BAC, and AIG are 6 of those 10 companies. On the other hand, it's often said that the banking sector generally leads the rest of the economy out of recession. But given that $67 Trillion (nearly 100% of global GDP) of UNREGULATED financial activity exists in the financial system, it's quite possible that when the European crisis finally comes to its inevitable climax, those profits will disappear quite quickly. Most of the collateral for the Shadow Banking system is increasing dependent upon Sovereign debt. As more and more countries find themselves heavily indebted, but unable to raise the tax revenue to pay it off, this collateral will become increasingly shaky. Hawk

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (13389)	11/28/2012 2:17:55 AM
From: John Pitera	13 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

I'm talking about a market collapse in 2013 possibly continuing into 2014 , so my post was a bit imprecise saying this year. I have a multitude of reasons and I have been doing this for almost 40 years too. I was working as Chief Market Technician and trading in a bill and bond futures profit center for Citibank in 1986-1987, and I gave several presentations including one at the Sydney; futures exchange in front of several reserve bank governors of the Reserve Bank of Australia and I ended my discussion of Technical Analysis with a couple of Fundamental Charts from the Montreal forecasting firm that showed public sector debt, private sector debt and governmental debt to GDP and how it had advanced to the same very high levels of the 1929-1930 time period. And that equity values were so stressed that we had a market crash coming. I specifically remeber an employee of the RBA coming up to personally thank me at the end of my talk. I first spoke of the coming Credit Default Swaps crisis and collapse on Sept 15th of 2005 on this thread...... and was ahead of the curve articulating how large the Magnitude of losses measured in trillions of dollars would occur. I was on this thread in April of 2008 when the founder of Vanguard said the FED had committed $400 billion or it's $800 billion balance sheet and his view was that the FED would be out of bullets at $800 billion. I SAID that this was ludicrous as the FED has an unlimited ability to expand it's balance sheet Up until the currency collapses. We've made it up to 2.7 Trillion and then the FED was talking about reducing it's balance sheet for a while last year before re engaging in an additional round of quantitative easing. And now the FED and people in general have the Hubris of believing that the FED can hold interest rates at zero going out into 2014-15. The FED has said that it has to keep equity prices up to keep the deflationary global deleveraging from occurring. Bloomberg pointed out that George Soros was a big net buyer of gold this past Q as if John Paulson who managed to turn a billion plus into 15 billion by working with Goldman Sachs who personally let him put together his own packages of credit default swaps that he would trade against. Bloomberg’s headline article sunday night was that Goldman Sachs was not going to be involved in the underwriting of bond issues from Banks in the South of Europe, Spain, Italy, and several other countries .... even though GS makes huge profits from underwriting. JPM and MS are still underwriting these upcoming debt issuances. it's a big tell when Goldman is walking away from lucrative underwriting business, they know the dangers of underwriting the sales and then getting caught with losses and litigation issues. Obama is firming his spine and wants to portray the Republicans as driving us over the fiscal cliff. He's not an LBJ , Eisenhower or Lincoln type negotiators as Doris Kerns Goodwin and several others including Chris Mathews has pointed out. Europe is having failures with Greece, Catalonia citizens have voted to become their own country and let the rest of the Spanish deal with their debt situation. The Arab spring is now transforming into a summer of 1968 type of burn down the cities. Israeli is facing more hostilities and the most fighting with neighbors since the 1973 war. Syria is a total disaster with at least 40,000 killed....... chemical weapons that are not secured..... no solutions, but the Russians have their key military base and naval base there that 'THEY MUST RETAIN" as it's their key base to get Russian warships subs etc into the Mediterranean. Japan has had 5 prime ministers in 5 years and are gearing up for a new election, the WSJ has shown how the currency has managed to maintain enough global safe haven value to suffocate the export markets. The issue is not what level stocks are trading at ...... everyoneshould read John Mauldin's NYT bestseller , the endgame" and we should be anticipating a european currency collapse and a US dollar currency collapse (ie hyperinflation) in the next 4 years. John McLauglin Group has a PBS show they have been doing for 30 years and this past friday, the final point was made that when interest rates inevitably go back up it will add several trillion dollars a year to the annual budget deficit just to service the interest on the existing debt. Art Cashin has spoken of the 16.7 year cycle that is also known by a number of market experts. I've been meaning to post the highs and lows of that since 1929 for Augustus Gloop, since we peaked in 2000. We will not have worked out our secular bear market for another 5 years or so. and we shall have another bear market prior to that that will be as bad as 2000-2003 and late 2007- until March of 2009. The 3rd one will hurt the worst as we collectively don't have the asset cushion we had in the glorious bubble days of 1999 and the euphoric real estate and equity market of 2006-2007. John this is my opening salvo..........only the tip of the iceberg.