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Biotech / Medical : BSD Medical (Long Term Investment Oriented) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (31)	11/29/2012 11:29:07 AM
From: pleonastic	Respond to of 178

>When there is new product rollout or new distribution channel implemented, the recognition of income can be a problem area. For instance, you have filling the channel (but not necessarily having the product used), channel stuffing, rights of return, contractual disputes, deadbeat customers, etc. < Yes, all worthy considerations – and thanks for pointing them out. I suspect a special problem re channel filling exists for the MTX-180 probes, as the fee-per-use plan is implemented largely by in-the-field representatives; each serving a metro area. I think probes are likely consigned to them for selling to the hospitals. And, it is possible, I suppose, that some probes are also consigned to hospitals, rather than the hospitals buying a stock outright (it is known that some hospitals maintain a stock). And, actual payment might well be delayed by slow medical-insurance reimbursements to the hospitals. Wolcott once indicated -- in a CC, with reference to why the successful FPU plan was not tried sooner -- they did not want to be a bank; but he did not elaborate. >When the cost per antennae is given at $2,000, is that the cost to the patient, or the invoice amount of BSDM? Have all the antennae sold been used, or are they held in an inventory of a distributor?< Those details have not been clearly revealed – at least I have not seen such. But, they have used the number as if it is what they get. BTW, at least one distributer (Appleton) has bought two MTX-180’s and is managing their own FPU program. >Anyway, here I would suppose that the company will not recognize income until and until the hospital is reimbursed and then pays BSDM, which could be considerable time. It might be that BSDM gave liberal payment terms so as to induce more use of their products.< That seems likely. But, IMO, they should have provided some discussion of this – or whatever – in the FY 2012 10K. Possibly, they did not want to get into a “sales vs Sales” discussion. Most important to (long-term, “actual”) investors is that the FPU plan is succeeding and probes are being used (sold) – when they record actual payment (Sales) is also important; but not most important, at the present time. >What you really need at BSDM is (1) demonstrated substantial growth rate in one or more products, and (2) ultimate positive cash flow. We shall see.< I suggest looking closely, and not waiting too long – BSDM has often shown some large, more-or-less instant jumps. And, the company is all but screaming (in CCs and news releases) that the FPU plan is now working very well. And, the markets addressed, for each of all their products (world-leading), are large enough to propel the company into large revenues. Please remember that their products, in total, amount to introducing a (still) new and very effective regime in cancer therapy; not just another product that addresses a one or a few cancers. These are the reasons I have limited this MB to Long-Term investing.