Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (41422)	12/6/2012 8:27:54 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 222814

I don't think Washington cares much about Wall Street. The worst thing that happens if we go over the cliff is that bond yields head lower, dollar goes up and oil prices go down. That's hardly something that Washington will fear. Washington probably wants the uncertainty to hit the extremes before they act. We're going over the cliff, it just depends to what degree. Washington never does anything but kick the can down the road. This time, there is no bluffing, so we may just have to deal with it. Within the context of the private sector, they are also looking for any reason to fire more people. C axed 11,000 jobs and the stock is up 10% in the past 2 days. The only thing making me queasy the past couple days is the bond market. Yields are dropping below support and no one is paying attention. Maybe they shouldn't! Low mortgage rates are the 1 silver lining from the last recession. I'm kind of hoping for a lousy jobs report tomorrow to force DC to quit screwing around and come up with a deal. The only thing that will really scare everyone in DC is a trend towards rising unemployment again. It's insane that the US is only creating 100K jobs a month. The silver lining from the next recession has to be lower oil prices. Not just for the next few months, but the next 10 years. Fundamentally, that trend seems to be in good shape, even with the dollar near the lows. Many people don't trust the government, but I trust the traders less. How can the Aussie dollar be flat YOY with 175 bp rate cut? I doubt that Australia is any different than any other non diversified commodity economy that wants to sink the value of their currency to become more competitive. Apparently, they need to go much further in rate cuts to devalue their currency. In a year, I would expect Aussie dollar to be trading well below par. Fundamentally, the number 1 problem in the US and everywhere is the cost of oil. There is no doubt in my mind that $107 global oil prices are unsustainable. Screw the BRIC's and all the commodity inflation we digested over the past decade. $90 global oil prices will surface next year. $65 is the real support level from 2009. Longer term, $65 oil is still correlated to the Euro at $1.30 going back to 2006. But, the DXY was trading around $90 which does almost no damage to the DOW.