To: Goldfinger who wrote (1682 ) 12/2/1997 9:00:00 PM From: The Fix Respond to of 4718
From USA Gold site.......... MARKET UPDATE (12/2/97) AM-----Gold rebounded this morning on news of Japanese intervention in the currency markets to bolster the yen and dampen the dollar -- the first such intervention since 1992. Gold also shrugged off the addition of 28,000+ ounces to the COMEX warehouse stocks. Stocks now stand at 746,000 and were under 500,000 two weeks ago. The London market led the way this morning with gold up almost $2 there on short covering and fund buying. The rally has extended to New York in early trading. The move up in London interests gold analysts because it was London that led the way down toward the end of November. In moving against the dollar, an un-named international monetary official warned in a Reuters report that "the U.S. dollar's rise not only against the yen but also other Asian currencies such as the rupiah would have a big impact on the United States because that would cause competitive devaluations." Buried in press reports last night was news that China was planning to devalue the yuan again. It was China's devaluation two years ago that ignited the Southeast Asia currency crisis. There move last night prompted Japan's action this AM. Watch out for more the possiblilty of more fireworks in Asia and Latin America. Those who read this report regularly know that we have warned all along that the dollar would have to come down "by whatever machination" to keep another round of devaluations, crashing stock markets, bank crises, etc. from occurring in Asia. We still believe that the United States is not immune (just another domino), but unlike other analysts we see the impact in the United States as inflationary, not deflationary, although some disinflationary numbers might still come up over the next 30 to 60 days. The IMF bailouts are meant to counter deflationary forces particulalry in Japan and Korea but these are saver/export economies. The U.S. is a credit/import economy. The former is inclined toward a deflationary bias in the economy; the latter inflationary when things go bump in the night. We still do not know how the bailouts are likely to affect the nations making the loans but, although all this makes for nice press and calm markets, its still the taxpayers of the countries contributing to IMF that are footing the bill. And this is a huge bill -- possibly as much as $150 to $200 billion when all is said and done -- although the standard press seems reluctant to provide us with a number in this regard. We expect the dollar devaluation to continue as a long term, agreed upon policy. We expect Japan to be the enforcer in this regard. WITH THEIR DOLLAR RESERVES, THEY DO HAVE THE MUSCLE TO DRIVE THE DOLLAR LOWER IF THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT. More later if warranted. If not, this will be it. Fixer