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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (41753)	12/13/2012 8:22:12 AM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 221961

Odds Of Debt Ceiling/Fiscal Cliff Deal By Year End Plummet To 16% On InTrade Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 - 17:04 Ben Bernanke Debt Ceiling Intrade Market Crash Obamacare InTrade may have gotten the Obamacare outcome horribly wrong, but it was spot on in predicting the Obama presidential victory. And if it has continued its accurately predictive ways, it will mean a lot of pain is in store for the market (if not so much the President) very shortly, because the online betting service, now only accessible to offshore based US residents just saw odds on a debt ceiling deal plunge to all time lows of 10% earlier today, before rebounding weakly to 16%. As a reminder, Harry Reid has said on numerous occasions that there will be no Fiscal Cliff resolution without a favorable debt ceiling outcome, which therefore means that according to InTrade the odds of a Fiscal Cliff getting done in 2012 have plunged to 16%, and the probability of a market tumble, as the cliff moving over to 2013 means a cornucopia of unintended consequences, is logically (1-16%).

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (41753)	12/13/2012 8:23:57 AM
From: penthouse mike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 221961

Are you still long gold and silver?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (41753)	12/13/2012 8:32:52 AM
From: Seismo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 221961

Imagine the volatility we are going to get in the stock and bond markets as we approach the targets the Fed has laid out. As we get below 7% unemployment the bond market especially is going to go nuts. At $4 trillion on the balance sheet it will take the Fed YEARS to unwind its position in a controlled manner. Plenty of time to give inflation a chance to hyper accelerate. I hope Volcker is still alive when that happens as we may again need him to come in and fix the mess.