Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cmg who wrote (6177)	12/2/1997 9:14:00 PM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

cmg, The signs are all there. The only company that seems to be above it all is CSCO. The talk is good around BAY but the stock just does not seem to have much life in it. Unfortunately for me, I bought Bay at 29 just a week or so ago. I contemplated selling calls Friday and Monday but figured the stock was posing for a take off. Now, I am thinking of hedging my bets tommorrow. Sell some January 30 calls and buy the December 30 or 27 puts with the proceeds. Lots of bad news in the tech sector, WDC, QNTM, TXN, CS, COMS, ASND, and moving to other segments. Large companies as well as small are being affected. The problems have been around for about five months now but there may still be another 4 to 6 months to sort through before we get past it. The technology boom last year and before fueld a lot of capital spending by technology firms. All that spending has generated some excess capacity. Personally, I think that there might be an indirect link to the currency turmoil and recent stock market jolts. I think that much of the downside has been priced in at this point but a recovery might be 4 to 6 months out. Perhaps an early summer rally. I think the best bet is to stay in and hedge. Look for the large caps to make a tripple top in January and for there to be a blood bath in February and March. Christmas is seeming a little weak so far this year, at least in Upstate (Southern Tier and Central) NY. Wayde.

To: cmg who wrote (6177)	12/3/1997 2:04:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

<<..and mrvc might just miss this quarter (thats what the stock action tells me).....>> The action tells me no such thing. In case you haven't noticed, the whole sector moves according to the buy and sell programs. When sells hit the whole sector moves down, and vice versa on buys. You have to own (or follow closely) multiple networkers to know this as I have (and do). Noone should think that the "all knowing and wise" market knows more than we do about fundamentals, products, etc. What you see is highly emotional selling of techs, due to uneasiness about Asia, specific companies (CS, COMS, NN, ASND in the NW sector) right now, etc. MRVC is just going along for the ride. If you've done your homework (as most on this thread have) have faith that "you know better" and you can view this as an excellent buying opportunity prior to an excellent Q4 and 1998. Sometimes you have to go against the crowd. I bought BAY at $16 earlier this year and sold at $36, COMS at $31 in April and sold at $53+, FORE at $11.25 and sold at $20, ORCL at $34.25 and sold at $55, PAIR at $16 and sold at $28+ SHVA at $8.5 and sold at $14+ - ALL THIS YEAR. (Yeah, before anyone mentions it, I missed out on selling ASND at $59 and am still holding at a loss with a $29 avg) Do you think I could have done all that going WITH the crowd? SI thread sentiments at the times I bought were typically: This (insert company name) sucks. Management is terrible. The stock will never rise again, (name your competitor) is kicking our butt, etc. The secret is to BUY (good companies, previously researched and closely followed by me) LOW and SELL HIGH. Most people continually do the opposite - amazing.