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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William T. Katz who wrote (5950)	12/2/1997 10:48:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

William: 2) Big players got told something. This is unlikely for a Fortune 500 company. I do not believe that this happened. 1) Irrational panic which fuels more panic, stop orders, and margin calls. This is very likely the case. The market still sees that SEG and WDC are trading at their year's lows, while QNTM is trading at double of the year's low. At the heat of the moment (when WDC issued a warning), those who had bought QNTM at the beginning of the year chose to take their profits and run!! I do not think they are willing to make any rational arguments on earnings, P/E for the DLT business, etc. [Perhaps you and I will also do the same thing, irrationally.] If you look at the tape-drive sector, QNTM is still the leader in quality and sales volume. The rest of the sector enjoys a multiple of ~20, while QNTM is branded as a DD player with a multiple of ~10. I assume that we have had a complete turnover of shares, and expect the price to rise hereafter. Sankar

To: William T. Katz who wrote (5950)	12/3/1997 11:50:00 AM
From: still learning	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

You left out possibility #3: QNTM still does not know how this Q will turn out and is not in a position to comment. Therefore the curreent downturn has to do with visibility and uncertainty around this Q's #s. IMHO QNTM may well miss the .59 adjusted estimate, or they may make it. MB will probably make a simple determination: is it worth pulling out all the stops (agressively pulling in $$, slightly trimming expenses, and using any safety net of deferred revenue) to meet or beat this Q, or isn't it. If he thought they could gain lasting credibility by doing so, I think he would go for it, albeit at some risk to Q4 (no safety net left). If QNTM decides to make Q3 #s any way possible there is still some fallback in that Q4 will almost undoubtedly be a better environment (though not necessarily a profoundly better environment) than Q3. FYI MB has said that QNTM and perhaps the entire sector need to show 10 Qs of solid progress before shaking the rap of cyclicality and being in the commodity business. QNTM may be becoming single minded in its determination to show that type of consistency. Then again, they may not be willing to swim upstream at a time when few investors will give them adequate "credit" for doing so, MHO is that now isa golden oppty -- as was last Q -- to separate yourself from the crowd. These oppty's are few and far between, and QNTM has one now. The way they conduct themselves in the next 60 days, including public announcements, will determine how they are seen for the next 1-2 years,.