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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: smaycs4 who wrote (50400)12/19/2012 12:43:12 PM
From: PizzaSalt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78599
 
smaycs4,
Thanks for the idea. Here is some supplemental research on Star Buffet Inc.

Long Equity- Star Buffet, Inc. (OTC:STRZQ)

My conservative 3-6 month target price is $4.23. Star’s total market cap is under $7 million
and, due to its small size and illiquidity, this write-up should probably be used for personal accounts and
extremely small funds. It is not actionable if you need to put $1 million to work. However, it is due to its
small size that the opportunity exists and is so compelling.

Star Buffet Capital Structure
As of Petition Date:
Secured Debt
Party Type Collateral Amount
Wells Fargo Term 5 Restaurants $ 3,100,000
Wells Fargo Revolver 5 Restaurants $ 2,475,000
Wells Fargo Mortgage Artesia, NM $ 199,000
Stockman's Bank Mortgage Great Falls, MT $ 571,825
Stockman's Bank Mortgage Great Falls, MT $ 308,195
Local FL Bank Mortgage Titusville, FL $ 706,000
Platinum Bank Mortgage Plant City, FL $ 640,000
Victorium Corp Mortgage Ocala, FL $ 200,000
Dalhart Federal Mortgage Dalhart, TX $ 425,000
Bank of Utah Mortgage Layton, UT $ 1,062,000
Total Secured Debt $ 9,687,020
Subordinated Debt
Party Type Amount
Robert Wheaton Note $ 2,227,892
Total Subordinated Debt $ 2,227,892
Total Debt $11,914,912

It is important to note that the continuing restaurant operations include 9-10 owned properties. Even
assuming that my value for the restaurant operations is incorrect, according to property tax records and
my estimates, these 9-10 buildings are worth a minimum of $5-7 million. This at least provides a decent
margin of safety once Star exits Chapter 11 and a potential source of future value extraction for
shareholders. It is also worth pointing out that Star has some current cash on hand, generated from its
restaurant operations while in Chapter 11. Star’s attorney would not tell me the exact amount, but did
say it was “significant”. When I asked him to give me a range, he gave me between $1 million and $5
million. I use $1 million in my calculation of value. A table of my pro-forma estimate of “sources of
value” is shown below.

Sources of Value Amount
Exit Loan from Wheaton $ 300,000
Cash on hand $ 1,000,000
RE Sales of 5 Wells Fargo Properties $ 5,440,000
RE Sales from 4 Other Encumbered Properties $ 4,126,750
RE Sales from 1 Unencumbered Property $ 1,912,500
Value of Continuing 25 Restaurants $ 18,000,000
Total Sources of Value $ 30,779,250

Conceptually, this valuation of approximately $30.8 million for the entirety of the enterprise is not
unreasonable. In the middle of 2008, on a similar asset base, in a severely worsening economy, the
market valued Star’s enterprise at over $33 million. The only thing that has changed about the assets is
that Star has closed underperforming, leased locations. The owned locations that Star chose to continue
operating should be profitable. Also, shareholders actually have a path toward value realization (the
monetization of the real estate) that, prior to Chapter 11 was not realistically going to occur. Therefore,
the entirety of the previous $33 million valuation was based solely on Star’s restaurant operations.



To: smaycs4 who wrote (50400)12/19/2012 2:10:37 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78599
 
And today, they offically announced their Reorganization Plan Confirmed. My plan is to hold my shares for higher prices, while their prior book value was mostly wiped out by large losses in prior years, Their strategic plan calls for good cash flow going forward.


Now we are talking. As far as valuation is concerned, I would put your own multiple on pre tax EBIT or EBITDA (5x ?) and put in some value for the NOL (10% of nominal max, imo) and subtract the net debt (13M$ ?).

That will give you an estimate for the value of the company. To estimate the value of the stock, you need to know how many shares are going to be outstanding after the reorg. I have not seen any evidence of share issues to debtors or such, but I suspect that management is going to propose a large incentive share grant for themselves as a reward for their troubles.

STRZQ does look about fairly valued here. Keep in mind that this is just a plan and it is apparent that plans can go wrong, otherwise they would not be in the trouble they are finding themselves right now.



To: smaycs4 who wrote (50400)12/19/2012 6:26:13 PM
From: Stavisky  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78599
 
I've downloaded from pacer.gov the last Plan of Reorganization:
filetea.me

Your comment are welcome!



To: smaycs4 who wrote (50400)1/7/2013 7:17:39 AM
From: Stavisky1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78599
 
> (Ive never been one to value stocks by inputting cashflow, if anyone has a calculater that would help me it would be appreciated)

Hi smaycs4,

I've used the data from the projections in "Exihibit B" in the Disclosure Statement (5/24/2012) to compute STRZQ present value and the result is $4.43 for share using a WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) of 5.5%:

Discounted Cash Flows Valuation for Star Buffet, Inc. (PINK: STRZQ)











Period FY CFFO CAPEX FCF Disc. Factor Disc. FCF

1 2013 2609.3 $ 650 $ 1,959 94.79% $ 1,857

2 2014 2558.1 $ 550 $ 2,008 89.85% $ 1,804

3 2015 2751 $ 550 $ 2,201 85.16% $ 1,874

4 2016 3214.4 $ 550 $ 2,664 80.72% $ 2,151

5 2017 2805.3 $ 550 $ 2,255 76.51% $ 1,726

6 2018 1881.8 $ 550 $ 1,332 72.52% $ 966

7 2019 2296.6 $ 550 $ 1,747 68.74% $ 1,201

8 2020 2339.7 $ 550 $ 1,790 65.16% $ 1,166

Residual ...

$ 32,540 68.74% $ 22,369








WACC 5.50%





Residual growth 0.00%





















Disc. Excess Ret. Period FCF: $ 12,745





Disc. Residual Value: $ 22,369





+ Short-Term Assets: $ 1,234





Total Corporate Value: $ 36,348













- Debt: $ 17,370





- Preferred Stock: $ -





- Short-Term Liabilities: $ 4,734





Total Value to Common Equity: $ 14,244





Shares Outstanding: 3213





Intrinsic Stock Value: $ 4.43



If you want, I can send you also my spreadsheet.