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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry J. who wrote (25278)	12/2/1997 11:59:00 PM
From: DX	Respond to of 61433

Agree! ASND's fundmentals have been improving(recently evaluated great products and efficient management). ASND's customers have been loyal while more new contracts have been inked. All indicators suggest that ASND is back on its right track and ready to take off again. Regards,

To: Larry J. who wrote (25278)	12/3/1997 12:50:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 61433

<<I share Maverick's "forecast" wholeheartedly, and as I have posted previously would go a step further in suggesting that ASND will not only meet estimates of .23 per share for the Q, they will beat them handily. THE QUARTER IS GOING WELL.>> Larry, I agree with you in support of Maverick. But I must take issue with your "beat them handily" comment. As everyone knows, I have been and continue to be very bullish on ASND from a long term perspective. Until recently, I would have agreed with you on beating the estimates handily. I still believe that ASND is CAPABLE of beating this quarter's estimates handily, but I now believe that they WILL NOT do it. What I see, with the new CFO and the Q3 fiasco, is a company transitioning from a "get order, ship product" mentality to a more carefully managed series of quarters with emphasis on growing their backlogs so that each quarter can be more manageable and show a nice consistent growth pattern. As such, I feel that if they COULD bring in say $325 Million in revenue, that they STILL will report about $290 or a little over (say $300M) and save the rest for future 1998 quarters. We already know they shifted $10M of revenue from Q1 to Q3, so it makes sense that they will shift some Q4 to Q1 somehow. By this time next year I predict a nice series of consecutive growth quarters and they will have "trained" the street to count on their word (and a little more) each quarter. So, I would rather see $290M-$300M in Q4 than $325M. I'm confident that there will be some extra revenue moving to Q1 and cascading to each successive quarter. This of course will take much of the "yo-yo" volatility out of the stock, which is good for investors and less good for traders.

To: Larry J. who wrote (25278)	12/3/1997 9:55:00 PM
From: john dodson	Respond to of 61433

Maverick Champions, Alright, alright already. Sorry for unloading a bit strong on the ole Maverick. I was a bit heavy-handed. Sorry about that. I bet Maverick didn't know he had so many supporters! However, I still don't back down from my point: how can anyone offer assurances about ASND's earnings after last quarter or any quarter really? Opinion, sure, probability yes, but "assurances"? Don't get me wrong, I hope ASND has a stellar quarter as much as anyone. Maybe they will. All I'm saying is ASND shareholders have to be very careful with this quarter. If they make the numbers, then yeah, a recovery will be well under way. However, think about the downside risk. If they miss the numbers again, there will be almost no case for those who argued that last quarter was a fluke. A real slowdown (2 consecutive qtrs) for a hot grower like ASND is the kiss of death. The multiple goes down even more, earnings go down, confidence goes down, and the share price takes forever to rebound. Just my views. -John Dodson