To: milton who wrote (6269 ) 12/3/1997 1:48:00 AM From: Douglas V. Fant Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13925
milton, Greenspan sees strong world economy after shakeout (from speech tonight): ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tuesday December 2, 11:44 pm Eastern Time Greenspan sees strong world economy after Asia woes (Updates with new quotes) By Isabelle Clary NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The world economy will emerge stronger once Asia's financial problems have been resolved, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday night. But Greenspan told the Economic Club of New York, a gathering of top executives at major financial institutions, that developing countries needed to bolster their banking systems and open up their markets to return to the rapid growth rates of the past. ''While the adjustments may be difficult for a time, these crises will pass,'' he said. ''Stronger individual economies and a more robust and efficient international economic and financial system will surely emerge in their wake.'' Speaking after a number of Asian nations tried in vain to defend their currencies from massive speculative sales, Greenspan warned any effort to prop misaligned currencies with huge reserves would delay the consequences, potentially making them worse. His speech made little reference to the U.S. economy, which is in its seventh year of growth, but he addressed domestic inflationary pressures during a question-and-answer session. Economists expect the troubles in Asia and its possible fallout in the United States to prevent the Fed from altering interest rates at its Dec. 16 meeting despite fears that tight U.S. labor markets could fan wage-driven inflationary pressures. ''Service prices (in the United States) ... are still moving at a pace above what one would characterize as price stability,'' Greenspan said, underscoring that the Fed's main policy objective is price stability. In an unusually candid acknowledgment, Greenspan said the Fed was equally concerned about the inflation or deflation risks to the economy. Deflation, or a loss of assets' value, results in a serious drag on the economy. Greenspan also pointed out that deflation often is a consequence of a one-time financial asset bubble. Aware of strong U.S. growth, markets have been focusing on Asia's troubled emerging markets and on Japan, where big brokerage Yamaichi Securities Co folded two weeks ago. Greenspan said the Japanese government was ''finally'' acting appropriately to deal with domestic banking problems. ''In most developed nations, banking systems appear reasonably solid. Japan has been somewhat of an exception, but there have been some positive signs there as well,'' he said. ''Banks have been recognizing losses, and the government seems finally to be appropriately addressing their problems.'' He said short-term loans from the International Monetary Fund were in the best interests of the United States because ''any severe breakdown can have contagion effects on a worldwide basis. Contagion in Asia had been ''particularly troublesome,'' he said. The IMF has already offered multibillion-dollar rescue packages to Thailand and Indonesia and is close to sealing a deal with South Korea, the world's 11th biggest economy. Referring to the troubles, Greenspan said a slowdown in Asian growth was inevitable, but that this could be temporary. ''I say temporary because there is no reason that above-average growth in countries that are still in a position to gain from catching up with the prevailing technology cannot persist for a very long time, provided their markets are opened to the full force of competition,'' he said. ''We should strongly stress to the newer members of the international financial system -- the emerging economies -- that they should accelerate the restructuring of their financial systems in their own interests,'' he said. Speaking about a massive consolidation within the banking industry, Greenspan warned even these huge players should not be complacent, trusting they would automatically be bailed out in a crisis because they were considered too large to fail. There ''is a very strong bias against the too big to fail'' syndrome, Greenspan warned, acknowledging that players would behave differently knowing they were not in danger of being allowed to fail.