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To: The Ox who wrote (1342)	12/29/2012 1:18:37 PM
From: Robert O	1 Recommendation Respond to of 8288

This post makes a lot of sense and is borne out time and time again. It always seems like a trader has missed large moves in first portions but momo alone keeps it going far longer than anyone would predict until that very last buyer has bit (or seller has capitulated) , only then does it begin the move the other way. I'm starting to be a big believer in the crowded trade results in reversals that seem to defy all fundamental reasons but not technical ones The various Market Wizard books are not going to give you a specific road map to success but I would say the three most important themes (that every master trader cites) are well founded: 1) never risk more than 5% of your entire capital ( I ignore this one as I'm not a fund and can wait long periods with no trades but need to risk more than 5% when opportunity arises esp in extremes) 2) Limit your losses and try to let winners run (this jibes with concept you may have more loosing trades than winners but winners will swamp losses in dollars). Aim for sweet spot of trade move, making profit from 80% of the move results in this favorite aphorism : 'I made all my money selling to soon' 3) In general, follow trends don’t attempt to find the pinpoint reversals Always wait for trend to establish then ride it. As to your lst point I also agree and for me I am willing to go much larger in size when there is some kind of safety net such as cash per share (if it's 'real' !) or some other factor that makes the company fundies or technical situation suggest a large statistical advantage in the face of whatever fear is driving price up/down.