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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (58609)12/29/2012 5:00:53 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95610
 
From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 28-Dec-12Dow -158.20 at 12938.11, Nasdaq -25.60 at 2960.31, S&P -15.67 at 1402.42

Stocks spent today's session in the red as the hope for a timely budget deal becomes more distant. The major averages saw a late-afternoon spike after reports out of Washington indicated President Obama will present a scaled-back budget proposal during his meeting with top lawmakers today. However, shortly after the president began his meeting with lawmakers, further reports indicated no new offer would be made, and President Obama would stand by his original proposal. As a result, the S&P 500 lost 1.1%.

The energy sector was the weakest performer and the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE 69.83, -1.24) lost 1.7%. Crude oil slipped to session lows after today's inventory data revealed a smaller-than-expected weekly draw. The energy component settled lower by 0.1%, at $90.79.

Sector leaders saw comparable losses as Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.10, -1.76) and Chevron (CVX 106.45, -2.07) both lost near 2.0%. Looking at news within the space, Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO 20.64, -1.17) slid 5.4% following the sale of its interests in the Huntington Field in the United Kingdom's North Sea for $184 million.

The volatility index, or VIX, surged 11.0%. The volatility measure ended at 21.62 after crossing above the 20.00 level yesterday. The move was notable as the VIX has held below 20.00 since late July. At its lowest point, the VIX has flirted with the 13.30 level. However, a steady rise has been observed over the past week as investors seek more downside protection due to the uncertainty resulting from the lack of a budget deal. Today's VIX close marked a six-month high.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average slid 0.9% and outperformed the broader market. JB Hunt (JBHT 58.48, -0.16) and Landstar (LSTR 51.62, -0.12) were among the top performers, losing around 0.2% each. Meanwhile, providers of package delivery services weighed on the index. FedEx (FDX 90.39, -1.11) slid 1.2% and UPS (UPS 72.83, -1.08) lost 1.5%.

Elsewhere, Barnes & Noble (BKS 14.97, +0.62) gained 4.3% after Pearson (PSO 19.28, -0.09) confirmed plans to invest $89.5 million in NOOK Media, LLC, which is a new company consisting of Barnes & Noble's digital businesses. The NOOK e-reader, tablets, the NOOK digital store, as well as the company's 674 college bookstores across the country will all be included under the umbrella of NOOK Media, LLC. Though Barnes & Noble saw notable gains, it should be noted that in addition to announcing the Pearson investment, BKS said today that holiday sales results will miss expectations, and the NOOK business will not meet the company's earlier projections.

Today's economic data revealed a 1.7% increase in pending home sales during the month of November. While the pending sales data does not have a direct impact on homebuilders, strong sales of existing homes bode well for new construction projects. Major homebuilders ticked up in immediate response to the sales data, but were pressured back near their lows. DR Horton (DHI 19.24, -0.24) slid 1.2% and PulteGroup (PHM 17.60, -0.16) finished lower by 0.9%.

The December Chicago PMI reading of 51.6 surprised to the upside as economists surveyed by Briefing.com had generally expected a reading of 51.0 to follow the prior month's 50.4.

Week in Review: Equities Slip as Budget Deal Remains Distant

On Monday, the major averages spent the abbreviated session in the red as the lack of progress in the budget debate weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 hovered near its lows for the duration of the day, and the benchmark index lost 0.2% amid low volume. Microsoft (MSFT 26.55, -0.41) slipped 1.4% after New York Times reported it has not seen an uptick in demand for personal computers following the release of Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system. Computer assemblers Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 13.68, -0.36) and Dell (DELL 9.97, -0.14) both lost near 2.0% on the news.

Wednesday began on a positive note, but the early sentiment failed to hold. The key averages slipped to their respective lows during the first two hours of trade, and held there for the remainder of the session. As a result, the benchmark S&P 500 index finished lower by 0.5%. Retailers saw general weakness and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 60.91, -0.31) lost 1.7%. The softness followed a report from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which pointed to a 0.7% increase in holiday sales as compared to last year. The number was a disappointment as the general consensus expected sales to rise by as much as 4.0%.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 ended with minor losses following a volatile session. Equities began the day on a positive note, but comments from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid caused a quick change in sentiment. Speaking from the Senate floor, Senator Reid said that all signs suggest the country will go over the fiscal cliff. In addition, the senator said the House of Representatives is being run as a "dictatorship" by Speaker Boehner. The comments caused the major averages to fall to their respective lows. However, an afternoon report out of Washington indicated the House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday, December 30 at 18:30 ET in hopes of approving a budget. In response, the major averages raced off their lows, ending the day little changed after seeing losses of more than 1.0%. Financial stocks showed the most intraday sensitivity to the headlines, and the sector led the late-morning decline. However, the late-afternoon rally helped the sector recover the bulk of its losses. Among the majors, Bank of America (BAC 11.36, -0.11) shed 0.6% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.24, -0.39) fell 0.8%.

IndexStarted WeekEnded WeekChange% ChangeYTD %
DJIA13190.8412938.11-252.73-1.95.9
Nasdaq3021.012960.31-60.70-2.013.6
S&P 5001430.151402.43-27.72-1.911.5
Russell 2000847.92832.10-15.82-1.912.3

Sigma Designs (SIGM) announced that Microsoft's (MSFT) Smooth Streaming client technology has been integrated into Sigma's multimedia chipset solutions to deliver seamless HD 1080p media content.

Synchronoss Tech (SNCR) announced that it has acquired NewBay, a wholly owned subsidiary of Research in Motion Limited. NewBay is a leader in cloud services, enabling mobile operators and service providers to deliver content experiences across connected devices such as smartphones, tablets, PC's and TV's. NewBay's cloud services are delivered to millions of user and stores billions of media files for live operator services around the world. Synchronoss paid $55.5 million in cash to Research in Motion Limited, and there was no assumption of cash or debt. The transaction closed at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012.

Wunderlich initiated Lsi Logic (LSI) with a Buy and price target of $9. They believe the company is positioned to outperform its peers in 2013 due to: 1) the early move into the NAND Flash solid-state storage (SSS) markets with the company's Flash Storage Processor (FSP) and PCIe Flash Adapters (PFA), which should position LSI to benefit from the strong growth expected in this market; 2) the company's Storage systems and Server markets benefiting from the transition from 6 gig to 12 gig SAS expected to continue in 2013; and 3) design wins with its Axxia SoC solutions transitioning to production in the wireless infrastructure segment and this should help offset the challenging HDD market until a recovery later in 2013.

Wunderlich initiated Marvell (MRVL) with a Hold and price target of $9. The firm notes, The company has a strong tradition of leadership in the storage space that they expect to continue with the transition to SSDs, which has offset some recent headwinds in the HDD market. The uncertainty in the CFO position and lack of visibility for a return to above-market growth preclude the firm from recommending the stock now, which they believe is cheap. They would look for improvement in either of those factors before changing their rating, all else being equal.

08:22 am BCD Semiconductor downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus: . Stifel Nicolaus downgrades BCDS to Hold from Buy after Diodes (DIOD) and BCD Semiconductor (BCDS) have announced an agreement for Diodes to acquire BCD for $151mn cash. They believe the merger is a positive development for the analog semiconductor space and the premium (101%) confirms that overall valuation for small cap analog, mixed-signal companies remains too low in relation to intrinsic value. They believe publicly traded, small cap analog mixed signal companies have been trading at exceptionally low multiples relative to their fundamentals due to public market issues such as liquidity/low trading volume, lack of scale, and there being too many such companies vying for investor attention.

10:05 am S&P Information Technology Index is trading lower by 0.7%

Sector Summary: S&P Information Technology Index (-0.7%) trading higher today, ahead of the broader market The tech sector is trading lower today along with losses in the broader market. Semiconductors are showing relative strength, however, with the SOX trading only 0.4% lower. Within the chip index, WFR (+1.6%) is a notable standout. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.6% lower today, while the QQQ and the NASDAQ are trading 0.5% lower on the session. Among tech bellwethers, FB (+2.7%) is under notable pressure. In tech earnings, CALL (+5.6%) guided Q4 revs above consensus. In news last night, SNCR (+4.3%) announced that it has acquired NewBay from RIMM (+1.5%) for $55.5 mln. Among rumors, AAPL (-1.0%) is developing a smart watch according to reports. Among analyst research this morning in the tech space, LSI (+0.7%) was initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich. There are no notable names in tech scheduled to report quarterly results today after the close.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (58609)12/29/2012 5:28:48 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95610
 
This is the weekly update of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables in terms of earnings estimates and price changes.

Since this is(effectively) the end of 2012 with only the last day of the quarter and the end of the CY/FY this coming Monday, 10/31, this posting will be of all portions of the table going all the way back to the beginning on 8/29/08, over 4 years ago. A lot of ups and downs along the way over this period, but mostly, the trend has been sideways and will most likely, IMO, to stay that way for another 4 years at least. On 8/29/08 the SOX closed at 352.82. This past week's closing on 12/28/12 was 376.87(+6.8%). However, during the past 4+ years there have been several opportunities to make some "big money" by buying and selling in synch with the market ups and downs as the long term trend moved sideways. The same should happen over the next 4+ years. We just have to pick the right times and the right stocks that's all!

This past week has seen a turn around in the nice price runup during the previous 5 weeks(+8.4%). Looking at the entire 4+ year period, 5 week runups have not occurred very often so the "pressure" was on this past week to move down. The market obliged with a downturn of -2.4 percent. Notice that the earnings estimates for both the Group and SOXM all moved to the downside. More of the same, at least over the short term could well be in the "cards". Looking at the estimates in the table, the peak occurred in the Mar/Apr time frame of 2011. Since then, the trend has been down with new minimums being set every several weeks until the present time.

With the 4th quarter and and CY/FY 2012 ending for most stocks this coming Monday, the reporting beginning in mid-January through Feb and into March should give us lots of clues for the upcoming year. Consensus views by the analysts will be revised upon the company reports and CEO "visions" for the future year, or more. Also, the economic outlook for both the U.S. and the World will continue to unfold as time progresses. In the midst of all this reporting, perhaps a new uptrend cycle can begin.